by Henry Liu on November 24, 2009
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.3% Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.0% SELL -0.6%
We’ll be trading the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate to curb inflation.
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by Henry Liu on November 23, 2009
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 2.9% Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 3.2% SELL 2.6%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number. Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.
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by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.2% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high. We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.
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by Henry Liu on October 13, 2009
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/101409-nzdcpi/101409-nzdcpi.mp4 480 360]
5:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 1.1% SELL 0.5%
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.8% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower than 0.5%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.
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