US Existing Home Sales 02/26/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Existing Home Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales    Forecast 5.51M     Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY          BUY 5.90M            SELL 5.10M

We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit.  Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…

US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 5.6%  Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 5.9%        SELL 5.3%

We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise.  The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.

UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q       Forecast 0.2%     Previous 0.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD          BUY 0.5%         SELL -0.1%

We’ll be focusing on the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

US New Home Sales 02/24/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 23, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US New Home Sales, USA | 2 Comments to Read

10:00am NY Time   New Home Sales      Forecast 354K     Previous 342K
ACTION:  USD/JPY          BUY 420K          SELL 280K

We’ll be focusing on the the New Home Sales figure, which is expected at 354K; our tradable deviation is 70K, and if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possibly the USD/CHF pair as well; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF and possibly further downward pressure on the already sketchy EUR/USD pair.

Forex Market Analysis for the week of 02/22/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips, Forex Market Cycle Trading, Forex Market Sentiment Trading, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

… Taken from my Weekly Outlook Report February 22~26, 2010…  After this analysis we saw perfect SELL entries on both EUR/USD close to 1.3700 and GBP/USD 1.5580 area…  If you had a chance to read this report before the drop, you’d have been on the right side of the market. 

Written on 02/21/2010 just before the risk aversion sentiment on Monday/Tuesday

Last week’s most notable news was probably the surprise rate hike by the Federal Reserve on its discount rate, from 0.50% to 0.75%, which raises the costs of borrowing from banks to other banks.  This is not to be confused with the Federal Funds rate, which still remains at the current level of 0.25%.

US Core CPI m/m 02/19/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 18, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Core CPI m/m, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.2%  Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.4%      SELL 0.0%

We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number stays flat or decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. 

Canada Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Core Retail Sales, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.4%    Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD        BUY -0.2%         SELL 1.0%

We’ll be looking to trade the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline release today; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.0%.  Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency.  And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.

UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time)    Forecast -0.5%   Previous 0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 0.1%       SELL -1.1%

We’ll be focusing on the month on month Retail Sales release today from UK; it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.

Canada Core CPI m/m 02/18/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 17, 2010 under CAD Core CPI m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m   Forecast 0.1%   Previous -0.3%
ACTION: USD/CAD          BUY -0.2%       SELL 0.4%

We will be focusing on the Core CPI release from Canada and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD. 

USD/CAD has been consolidating over recent gains and it is diverging from other major currencies versus the USD.  As most European currencies are trading at their support levels against USD, CAD has been showing exceptional strength, but it is my opinion that USD may gain significantly against CAD if we get anything less than an upward surprise in this release.   If we were to look at correlation historically, we could expect an upward breakout on the USD/CAD pair soon following the collapse of both EUR/USD and GBP/USD recently.

UK MPC Meeting Minutes 02/17/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 16, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | Be the First to Comment

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) is releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held about two weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the Asset Purchasing Facility program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave both interested rate and APF unchanged and they are undecided on whether or not the APF (quantitative easing program) should expire or extended for the time being.   But without a concrete answer on the APF program, market took that as a bearish message and sold off GBP.

UK CPI y/y 02/16/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 15, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | 4 Comments to Read

4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y       Forecast 3.6%     Previous 2.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD              BUY 3.9%       SELL 3.3%

We’ll be focusing on the CPI release out of UK today using a surprise factor (or deviation) of 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 3.9%, which is way over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 3.3% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

US Core Retail Sales m/m 02/12/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 11, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Retail Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.4%  Previous -0.2%
8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales                            Forecast 0.4%      Previous -0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY  (CORE)    BUY 1.0%        SELL -0.2%

We’ll be trading Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. once again today. Since we have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, we should concentrate on the Core Release as it provides a better picture of the retail activities than the headline Retail Sales release.  However, it’s important to make sure there is no conflict between both releases or we should just stay out of the market.

German Prelim GDP q/q & EU Flash GDP q/q 02/12/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Europe, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

2:00am German Prelim GDP q/q         Forecast 0.2%   Previous 0.7%
5:00am EU Flash GDP q/q       Forecast 0.4%      Previous 0.4%
Action: N/A

We’ll be looking at both German Prelim GDP for the 4th Quarter 2009 GDP measurement.  Since this is the first release of GDP for the quarter out of Germany, it is more likely to surprise the market than 2nd or 3rd releases.  Since Germany and France are the two largest members of the European Union, their GDP releases makes up over 50% of the entire EU, therefore we’ll be looking at the market during their scheduled release time.

Australia Employment Change 02/10/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 10, 2010 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | 5 Comments to Read

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change    Forecast 15.1K    Previous 35.2K
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 45K         SELL -15K

We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia.  This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

BOE Inflation Report 02/10/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 9, 2010 under Currency Trading Tips, Forex News Trade, Great Britain | Be the First to Comment

5:30am NY Time BOE Inflation Report
ACTION: N/A

Bank of England is going to release its quarterly Inflation report on economic growth and projection for the next 24 months.  This report will be release together with a press conference by BOE Governor King along with other members of the MPC.

This quarterly Inflation report usually details BOE’s view over the current economic condition and future monetary policy.  With the recent hawkish rhetoric from various BOE officials over the state of UK economy and a rather disappointing prelim GDP release of just 0.1% on the 4th quarter of 2009, there is a possibility for this report to go either way.  Therefore, we’ll be watching this report and react should the market sentiment lean towards either buy or sell Sterling.

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 4, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | Read the First Comment

8:30m (NY Time) US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Changes       Forecast 10K       Previous -85K
(Unemployment Rate 10.0%)

ACTION: EUR/USD               SELL -60K USD/JPY                 SELL 80K EUR/USD

We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery.  At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.

Canada Employment Change 02/05/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am CA Employment Change     Forecast 15.2K    Previous -2.6K       (Unemployment Rate     8.5%)
ACTION:             BUY -15K       SELL 45K            USD/CAD

We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.

Canada IVEY PMI 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 3, 2010 under CAD Ivey PMI, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI      Forecast 52.3    Previous 48.4
ACTION:  USD/CAD    SELL 55.5    BUY 49.0

We’ll be focusing once again on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey.  And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of  above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.

ECB Trichet Press Conference 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Press Conference, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time ECB Chairman Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: N/A

We’ll be participating ECB (European Central Bank) Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet press conference today and he is going to be releasing the official ECB Interest Rate Statement along with a brief Q&A Session… Here is an overview of the situation

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to leave its official interest rate at 1.00% or unchanged once again this month.  The majority of analysts surveyed seems to agree to this sentiment as  ECB is likely to keep rates unchaged at the current level until 2011 as the Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of its member countries, especially Greece… As a matter of fact, should Greece default from unable to fulfill its debt obligations, the entire Euro Zone will suffer greatly and EUR could depreciate even below parity against the USD.

UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the consensus expectations are to keep current rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound.  The important focus today will be the decision concerning the APF program as it is expected to expire later this month.  If MPC decides to take a “wait and see” stance on the APF, expect to see GBP soaring against other majors as this is a strong message reflecting the recovery of UK’s economy.

Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 2, 2010 under AUD Retail Sales, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales  Forecast 0.3%   Previous 1.4%
ACTION:         BUY 0.9%      SELL -0.3%      AUD/USD

We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time  US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI     Forecast 51.1  Previous 49.8
ACTION:   BUY 53.5     SELL 48.5      USD/JPY

We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy.  With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.1, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.

US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ADP NFP Changes, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change      Forecast -31K     Previous -84K
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY +50K         SELL -100K

Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions,  we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.

UK Services PMI 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI     Forecast 56.6     Previous 56.8
ACTION: GBP/USD                        BUY 58.6         SELL 54.6

We will be focusing on the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 58.6 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.

RBA Cash Rate Decision 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 1, 2010 under AUD Interest Rate, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision     Forecast 4.00%    Previous 3.75%
ACTION: AUD/USD  N/A

Reserve Bank of Australia  (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 4.00% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters.  Majority of economists expected a pause in today’s rate decision back in December of 2009, and many of them had apparently jumped ship and are now on the side of a rate hike… As a matter of fact, there are rumors floating of a possible hike of 1/2 percent instead of the 1/4 percent forecast-ed… 

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time  US ISM Manufacturing PMI     Forecast 55.5  Previous 54.9
ACTION:   BUY 58.0      SELL 53.0      USD/JPY

Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way.  In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the greenback…  Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend change.

UK Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 54.1   Previous 54.1
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 56.1         SELL 52.1

Our focus for today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK and it’s forecasted at 52.0; UK PMI’s medium point is 50, therefore this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).

We are looking for a tradable deviation of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of February, market should react to this release with volatility should we get out deviation.  We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if you deviation is hit.