by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.51M Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.90M SELL 5.10M
We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit. Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…
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by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
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by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
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by Henry Liu on February 23, 2010
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 354K Previous 342K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 420K SELL 280K
We’ll be focusing on the the New Home Sales figure, which is expected at 354K; our tradable deviation is 70K, and if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possibly the USD/CHF pair as well; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF and possibly further downward pressure on the already sketchy EUR/USD pair.
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by Henry Liu on February 23, 2010
… Taken from my Weekly Outlook Report February 22~26, 2010… After this analysis we saw perfect SELL entries on both EUR/USD close to 1.3700 and GBP/USD 1.5580 area… If you had a chance to read this report before the drop, you’d have been on the right side of the market.
Written on 02/21/2010 just before the risk aversion sentiment on Monday/Tuesday
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by Henry Liu on February 18, 2010
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.4% SELL 0.0%
We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number stays flat or decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
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by Henry Liu on February 18, 2010
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll be looking to trade the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline release today; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.0%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
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