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US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10

January 28, 2010 By Henry Liu 3 Comments

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8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 4.5%     Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 4.8%                SELL 4.2%

Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number.  Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way.  We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%.  Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive.  We will BUY USD/JPY.  However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.

This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10. Read More...
Filed Under: Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10

January 28, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m   Forecast 0.3%      Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD         BUY 0.0%     SELL 0.6%

This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10. Read More...
Filed Under: CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10

January 26, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news companies.  As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement during last RBNZ rate decision from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.

This is a preview of New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10. Read More...
Filed Under: Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10

January 26, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011.  As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged). 

This is a preview of US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10. Read More...
Filed Under: Forex News Trade, US Interest Rate, USA Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

US New Home Sales 01/27/10

January 26, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales   Forecast 372K  Previous 355K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF        BUY 440K    SELL 300K

We’ll be looking to the the New Home Sales, which is expected at 372K; our tradable deviation is going to be 70K, so if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF. 

This is a preview of US New Home Sales 01/27/10. Read More...
Filed Under: Forex News Trade, US New Home Sales, USA Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Australia CPI q/q 01/26/10

January 25, 2010 By Henry Liu 2 Comments

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7:30pm AU CPI q/q         Forecast 0.4%      Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD        BUY 0.7%      SELL 0.0%

We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia.  As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing  rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside.  RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike. 

This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q 01/26/10. Read More...
Filed Under: AUD CPI q/q, Australia, Forex News Trade Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/26/10

January 25, 2010 By Henry Liu Leave a Comment

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4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q       Forecast 0.4%    Previous -0.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                               BUY 0.7%                 SELL 0.0%

We’ll be trading the much anticipated UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2009.  As we know, GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.

This is a preview of UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/26/10. Read More...
Filed Under: Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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