Forex News Trading and Currency Training Analysis Video
7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
We will be trading the Core CPI release from Canada and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Retail Sales release today, which is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency. Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the low liquidity condition of the market.
2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.50% SELL <0.25%
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the last time in 2009 and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010. As FOMC rarely make any changes to the key interest rate at the end of the year, there is really no expectation for a surprise change. As far as FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke are concerned, they have stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the latter part of 2010…
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be looking to trade Core CPI release and we are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. If you remember what I wrote last time, this is exactly the same consensus expectation as the market is looking at a low yet steady growth in U.S. Inflation for quite some time now…
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
We’ll be focusing on the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by a wide range of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg to be at 0.4%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number.
4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y Forecast 1.8% Previous 1.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 2.1% SELL 1.5%
Today we’ll focus on the CPI release once again out of UK and our surprise factor (or deviation) is at 0.3%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 2.1%, which is over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 1.5% or remain at the same level as last release, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we should see market overreaction. If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.2%
8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 1.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF (CORE) BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
We will be trading Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, and it is important that there is no conflict with these numbers or this will be an automatic no trade. The Core release is usually more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading.
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.1% ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7% Today we’ll be trading the Canadian GDP month on month release, … [Read More...]
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 55.1 Previous 51.9 ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 52.0 SELL 58.0 We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI (IVEY Purchasing Manager's Index) from Canada … [Read More...]
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.4% ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3% We'll be trading the quarterly GDP number out of Australia, which is … [Read More...]
Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator and it’s usually released during early month. Traders pay attention to this release for surprises as this survey may help to shape the general trend of the market. … [Read More...]
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.5% ACTION: (USD/CAD) BUY -0.2% … [Read More...]
4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 53.9 Previous 53.2 ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 56.00 SELL 51.5 We will watch this report closely as the UK … [Read More...]
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Monetary Policy Statement ACTION: AUD/USD BUY (Bullish) SELL (Bearish) RBA issues a statement on its Monetary Policy about 4 times a year. As statement … [Read More...]
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