10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.8 Previous 55.7
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 57.0 SELL 52.0
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and we’ll be looking for a minimum of 2.5 of deviation either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the sentiment of risk appetite, thus USD could remain under pressure; however, if the release is negative, below the medium 50 level, we could see stronger USD and stronger JPY throughout the rest of the US session. Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction of December.
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We will be trading the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it is expected to be at 54.0 and it is considered as a positive release given the fact that anything above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector.
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Last week was indeed a volatile week due to the low liquidity. And as I have warned in my last Weekly Outlook report about the excessive market movement from my previous experiences over the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays, this Thanksgiving didn’t disappoint and certainly lived up to its reputation – and then some…
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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 3.75% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. However, this is going to be the first time RBA has hiked rates 3 times consecutively in a row. Therefore, there is some expectation that RBA may not hike rate this time, but may resume its rate tightening cycle in 2010.
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8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7%
Today we’ll be trading the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event.
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10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 408K Previous 402K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY 480K SELL 330K
Our focus is on the New Home Sales, which is expected at 408K; our tradable deviation is going to be 70K, so if the release is lower, it would be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY or USD/CHF.
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4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast -0.3% Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.0% SELL -0.6%
We’ll be trading the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate to curb inflation.
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Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2158)
