US ISM Manufacturing PMI m/m 12/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 30, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA | Read the First Comment

10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI   Forecast 54.8  Previous 55.7
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 57.0      SELL 52.0

We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI today and we’ll be looking for a minimum of 2.5 of deviation either way.  In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the sentiment of risk appetite, thus USD could remain under pressure; however, if the release is negative, below the medium 50 level, we could see stronger USD and stronger JPY throughout the rest of the US session.  Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction of December.

UK Manufacturing PMI m/m 12/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 54.1   Previous 53.7
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 56.0         SELL 52.0

We will be trading the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it is expected to be at 54.0 and it is considered as a positive release given the fact that anything above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Forex News and Market Trend Wrap-up – Thanksgiving Week, Dubai World, UAE Support, JPY Strength…

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips, General | 5 Comments to Read

Last week was indeed a volatile week due to the low liquidity.  And as I have warned in my last Weekly Outlook report about the excessive market movement from my previous experiences over the U.S. Thanksgiving holidays, this Thanksgiving didn’t disappoint and certainly lived up to its reputation – and then some…

As a week that started with some mild risk appetite sentiment, but then the market started to take hints from FOMC Minutes on the Federal Reserve’s bearish tone over a continuing decline in the Dollar and unemployment rate, which echoed Fed. Fisher’s comments just a week ago, we saw USD getting sold off broadly against all majors, including the JPY…

RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/30/09 (Interest Rate Decision)

Posted by Henry Liu on under AUD Interest Rate, Australia, Forex News Trade | 4 Comments to Read

10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision     Forecast 3.75%    Previous 3.50%
ACTION: AUD/USD  N/A

Reserve Bank of Australia  (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 3.75% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters.  However, this is going to be the first time RBA has hiked rates 3 times consecutively in a row.  Therefore, there is some expectation that RBA may not hike rate this time, but may resume its rate tightening cycle in 2010.

Canada GDP m/m 11/30/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m   Forecast 0.4%      Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD         BUY 0.1%     SELL 0.7%

Today we’ll be trading the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event.

US New Home Sales m/m 11/25/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 24, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US New Home Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales   Forecast 408K  Previous 402K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF        BUY 480K    SELL 330K

Our focus is on the New Home Sales, which is expected at 408K; our tradable deviation is going to be 70K, so if the release is lower, it would be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY or USD/CHF.

UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q       Forecast -0.3%     Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD          BUY 0.0%         SELL -0.6%

We’ll be trading the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate to curb inflation.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes 11/24/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 23, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips, General | Be the First to Comment

2:00pm (NY Time) US FOMC Meeting Minutes
ACTION: N/A

FOMC Meeting minutes is usually scheduled to be released 3 weeks after the Fed Fund Rate decision.  Below is the entire statement released on Nov. 4, 2009, I’ve taken the liberty of marking some positive and negative comments:

US Prelim GDP q/q 11/24/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 2.9%  Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 3.2%        SELL 2.6%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number.  Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.

US Existing Home Sales m/m 11/23/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 22, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Existing Home Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales    Forecast 5.71M     Previous 5.57M
ACTION: USD/JPY          BUY 6.11M            SELL 5.37M

We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury.  It will be a typical battle between fundamental outlook and risk sentiment… With USD just rallied last week against all other majors, a positive release could accelerate USD’s decline as demand for risk appetite may return to the market.

Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 11/23/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Core Retail Sales, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.4%    Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD        BUY -0.2%         SELL 1.0%

We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.5%.  Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency.  And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.

UK Retail Sales m/m 11/19/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 18, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 0.6%   Previous 0.0%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.2%       SELL -0.1%

Retail Sales is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is obviously good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency whereas a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales usually makes up a substantial part of the GDP, thus the effect of this release could be very profound.

US Core CPI m/m 11/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 17, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Core CPI m/m, USA | 5 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.1%  Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.3%      SELL -0.1%

Our focus will be on the Core CPI release and we are going to look  for a surprise factor of 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY.  If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY.  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.

Canada Core CPI m/m 11/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Core CPI m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m   Forecast 0.0%   Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/CAD          BUY -0.3%       SELL 0.3%

Our focus will be on the Core CPI release from Canada and the tradable deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.3% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.3% or worse to BUY USD/CAD. 

USD/CAD has been trading very strong lately but it has found support at around the 1.0420 with the USD.  If we get a worse than expected release, an obvious rebound from this level is expected and we could see the 1.0600 to 1.0700 providing some support; if the opposite is true, then expect 1.0400 to be taken out and USD/CAD could be on the way to 1.0200 as the previous support lies.

BOE MPC Meeting Minutes 11/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | 2 Comments to Read

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held 2 weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the vote count over the increase in its APF program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave the interested rate unchanged but surprised the market by only increasing its QE program by 25 Billion Pound against analysts estimate of 50 Billion Pound Increase.  This action provided an immediate short-term rally for the British Pound as traders and speculators both wonder the reasons to this surprisingly strong outlook for the GBP from BOE.

UK CPI y/y 11/17/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 16, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | 3 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 1.4%         Previous 1.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 1.7%      SELL 1.1%

We’ll focus on the CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is  at 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 1.7% then we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 1.1% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we should see market overreaction.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

US Core Retail Sales m/m 11/16/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 15, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Retail Sales, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.4%  Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 1.0%        SELL -0.2%

Our focus will be on the Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am.  It is important that there is no conflict with the numbers between in order for us to get into a trade.  The Core release is more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the seasonal Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading, and the headline is currently forecasted at 1.0% with a previous release of -2.1%. 

Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 10, 2009 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast -10.0  Previous -40.6K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +15K   SELL -40K

As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy.  If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.

New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 11/11/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.5%  Previous 1.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.1%      SELL -0.1%

today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.

BOE Inflation Report 11/11/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

5:30am NY Time UK BOE Inflation Report
ACTION: N/A

Bank of England (BOE) will release its inflation report for the quarter, this report will contain BOE’s inflation target for the next two years, along with reasons of recent decisions in BOE’s monetary policy.  This report, as defined by BOE itself:

“…It serves two purposes. First, its preparation provides a comprehensive and forward-looking framework for discussion among MPC members as an aid to our decision making. Second, its publication allows us to share our thinking and explain the reasons for our decisions to those whom they affect.”

Here’s My Blueprint To Forex Success…

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

If you’ve got a few minutes, I’ve recorded a new video on “My
Blueprint to Forex Success” just for you…

But I must warn you, it’s not about how to pick winning trades or
any of that exciting stuff…

…and as a matter of fact, this video could be considered a little
boring by some…  But it deals with the cold hard logic of a
successful Forex career, and it’s something that you can’t do
without if you EVER want to be successful in this business…

Henry’s Blueprint to Forex Success

Grab your FREE Strength Meter and add 30 pips to your next trade…

Posted by Henry Liu on November 9, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips | 9 Comments to Read

US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 5, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | 18 Comments to Read

For more information on my Mastermind Mentoring System and to join my group, visit my site.

8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -173K  Previous -263K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -100K      SELL -250K

We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -173K with a previous release of -263K, which was a disappointment during last NFP release.  We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-100K or -250K).  We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is once again -263K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision; chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases  between the revision and the actual release.

Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes      Forecast 10K    Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD         SELL 40K     BUY -20K

Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today.  We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.  With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.

My dumbest Forex trick EVER (yet it works)…

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

I just posted a video for you on a special trick in Forex News
Trading that made me tons of money during the spike trading days,
although you can’t really spike trade anymore, this trick still
works great for news trading and just normal Forex trading…

Henry’s Forex Trick

And of course, if you have  a broker that currently allows you to
spike trade, you’re going to LOVE me for showing you this neat
little trick…

This is the 2nd video of my Mastermind Mentoring System launch
special, and once again, it is my thanks to you for your ongoing
support…

ECB Trichet Press Conference 11/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 4, 2009 under EUR ECB Press Conference, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) EU Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: EUR/USD     BUY (Hawkish)   SELL (Dovish)

Trichet will deliver an official statement along with a Q&A session afterwards.  This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for clues from Trichet’s tone for future monetary policy directions.  If Trichet is hawkish over the future of EURO, namely talking about exit strategey and possibility of hikig rates, then we will see EURO gain; if  Trichet is dovish, focused on the real picture of the recovery, then we will see EURO trade lower against all other currencies.

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 11/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to leave its official interest rate once again at 1.00%, or unchanged.  Analysts surveyed by different news agencies (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc…) seem to agree that it is too soon for ECB to hike interest rate and the time has passed for further rate cuts.  ECB’s next interest rate move is likely to be a hike, but it probably won’t take place until the end of first quarter of 2010.

UK BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 11/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | 4 Comments to Read

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release its interest rate decision once again today, and consensus expectation is to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders.  However, the important focus today will be the APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, or Quantitative Easing, or their Stimulus Program) program, which is expected by analysts to be increased by a minimum of 25 billion Pound to a maximum of 75 billion Pound…

Forex News Trading Report and How-to Video FREE! (What news to trade, what deviation, etc…)

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips | Be the First to Comment

Today I’m launching my Mastermind Mentoring Program, and to celebrate, I’m sending you my news trading trigger report along with a special video on how to trade economic news taking advantage of this report…

It’s my way of saying thanks to you for your ongoing support in reading my daily newsletter…

This report literally took 3 years of trading combining with meticulous record keeping, and finally putting everything together in this one page report. It’s what I’ve been using to trade the news, and I’m sure you’ll find it invaluable to your trading, even if you don’t trade economic news releases… You’ll get my private list of ALL tradable news releases, their tradable deviations, and their expected movement ranges in pips after news… like I said, it’s invaluable.

FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision And Statement Analysis 11/04/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 3, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Interest Rate, USA | 2 Comments to Read

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010.  This sentiment is also echoed by FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke, who has stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the labor market improves.  With last month’s NFP missing expectation, it is almost a certainty that we’ll get an unchanged verdict.