by Henry Liu on October 30, 2009
Hi everyone,
I just wanted to say that with today’s unexpected turn of events from the U.S. GDP release, market has turned around from last 3 days of risk aversion concerns to an all out risk appetite and boosted gains of every major currency against the USD… This created a strong reversal on the GBP as it blew through several resistance points… and boy, did I ever hear about it from my subscribers! I spent almost half-day just replying emails to traders who just totally ignored the US GDP release and went short on Sterling. I got hate mails, critiques, and tons of emails from concerned subscribers, which I must say that I’m always happy to hear from…
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by Henry Liu on October 29, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% BUY -0.2%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP has a strong effect on the cash rate of the CAD, as better economy affects BOC’s rate outlook and future monetary policy.
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by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009
Ok guys, I know you are wondering… and I apologize as I have been working day and night for the past 2 weeks trying to launch a new version of newsprofiteer.com, and of course, my new mentoring system…
I don’t want to get too much into it, because it is sort of a surprise… but I promise, you’ll definitely like it… So bear with me just a few more days, as the official launch date is next week…
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by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.2% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high. We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.
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by Henry Liu on October 27, 2009
4:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 2.75% SELL Unchanged
RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…
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by Henry Liu on October 27, 2009
10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 443K Previous 429K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY 515K SELL 370K
Our focus is on the New Home Sales, which is expected at 443K; if the release is lower, it would be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY or USD/CHF.
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by Henry Liu on October 26, 2009
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.8%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
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