I just wanted to say that with today’s unexpected turn of events from the U.S. GDP release, market has turned around from last 3 days of risk aversion concerns to an all out risk appetite and boosted gains of every major currency against the USD… This created a strong reversal on the GBP as it blew through several resistance points… and boy, did I ever hear about it from my subscribers! I spent almost half-day just replying emails to traders who just totally ignored the US GDP release and went short on Sterling. I got hate mails, critiques, and tons of emails from concerned subscribers, which I must say that I’m always happy to hear from…
This is a preview of Open letter concerning Sterling’s Reversal – (copied from my newsletter). Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% BUY -0.2%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP has a strong effect on the cash rate of the CAD, as better economy affects BOC’s rate outlook and future monetary policy.
This is a preview of Canada GDP (Gross Domestic Product) m/m 10/30/09. Read More...
Ok guys, I know you are wondering… and I apologize as I have been working day and night for the past 2 weeks trying to launch a new version of newsprofiteer.com, and of course, my new mentoring system…
I don’t want to get too much into it, because it is sort of a surprise… but I promise, you’ll definitely like it… So bear with me just a few more days, as the official launch date is next week…
Of course, I’ve been trading and still recording my trades live, and they will be posted in due time…
This is a preview of Henry, where are the Videos?. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 3.2% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 3.5% SELL 2.9%
Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers. Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high. We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%. Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.
This is a preview of US Adv. GDP q/q 10/29/09. Read More...
RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg. As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…
Here are some of the facts worth considering, NZ’s Prime Minister John Key spoke today on the high rate of exchange of Kiwi offsetting any inflationary concerns, and if RBNZ hikes rates in 2009, he would be “very surprised”…
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 10/28/09. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 443K Previous 429K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY 515K SELL 370K
Our focus is on the New Home Sales, which is expected at 443K; if the release is lower, it would be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY or USD/CHF.
This is a preview of US New Home Sales m/m 10/28/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q 10/27/09. Read More...
For those who are in my Weekly Outlook Report, you must be happy by now, because my calls on SELL GBP must have made you good money today; but for those who are not on my Weekly Outlook Membership (paid service), here is what I wrote on Sunday for the Sterling:
“Last week’s main event was no other than the surprise release of UK’s 3rd quarter Prelim GDP, which came out negative at -0.4% versus a wide expectation of a positive number in the range of 0.1%~0.5%. This release, which was not expected by all 30+ analysts Bloomberg surveyed, turned the sentiment for Sterling around immediately as GBP/USD dropped immediately over 100 pips in matters of seconds, and ended the trading day ay close to 400 pips of loss.
This is a preview of Where is Cable going next? A closer look at GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.37M Previous 5.10M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.77M SELL 4.90M
We’ll focus on the Existing Home Sales, which is expected at 5.37M; Our tradable difference is 400K, or 0.4 Million; if the actual figure is lower, it would be bearish for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be bullish for USD and good for risk appetite.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 10/23/09. Read More...
4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.6%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.4% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be trading the Prelim GDP q/q, which is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise to curb inflation.
This is a preview of UK Prelim GDP q/q 10/23/09. Read More...
BOC releases a quarterly Monetary Policy Report providing direction over its monetary policy and future interest rate decisions. This report is probably not tradable unless BOC surprises the market by deviating from its recent statement during the interest rate decision just a week ago.
However, in the event BOC offers new insight into their future monetary policy and points to the possibility of hiking interest rate sooner than June of 2010, then we could see some buying of the CAD; if BOC Report maintain the same rhetoric as before, then not much market reaction could be expect… as a matter of fact, we might even see CAD getting weaker against the USD.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Monetary Policy Report 10/22/09. Read More...
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada, not the headline release, which has a consensus expectation of 0.6% instead of the 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release on the Retail sales number means more consumption, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look of the actual economy.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 10/22/09. Read More...
Today we’ll once again focus on the UK Retail Sales, a high impact news released monthly, which is measurement of activities at the retail level. A higher Retail sales number usually reflects better consumer consumption, which leads to better economy, and of course better for its currency.
The tradable deviation for this release is at 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. If we do not get at minimum of 0.6% in deviation or difference from the expectation, we are like not take a trade as the release figure might not be safe enough for a successful trade based on historical data…
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 10/22/09. Read More...
MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held 2 weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and possibly the Qquantitative Easing measures (QE). Last rate decision MPC decided to leave both rates and their QE unchanged, which provided an immediate short-term (and short-lived) support for the British Pound. This meeting minutes, however, will probably have more profound effect on the British Pound than its predecessors because of the sharp gain in GBP last week, which was attributed to none other than the rumor to the possible termination of the QE program, and solid proof will be provided by official sources today.
This is a preview of UK MPC Meeting Minutes 10/21/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) renders its Overnight Rate decisions 8 times a year and today’s meeting will be widely watched by traders and speculators alike. Since interest rate policy serves as a tool to fight inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event from Canada for currency traders.
Although there are no official statements pointing to a surprise cut or hike, as BOC Governor Mark Carney stated in his last rate statement that BOC will maintain rates at low level until the end of first quarter 2010, traders are anxious to see if BOC follows suit after RBA’s surprise rate hike last week.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision 10/20/09. Read More...
RBA(Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to release its Meeting Minutes for the rate decision 2 weeks ago; and if you remember, it was a surprise to the currency market as a whole as RBA hiked it’s Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 3.00% to 3.25%. As with most analysts, I didn’t expect RBA to hike rates until 2010, and I was genuinely surprised by this decision, and of course, market responded with a frenzied demand for AUD and pushed AUD/USD pair to new 2009 highs.
This is a preview of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 10/19/09. Read More...
Our tradable deviation for the Canadian Core CPI based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
Canadian Dollar has been trading very strong lately but it has found support at around the 1.0200 with the USD. If we get a worse than expected release, an obvious rebound from this level is expected and we could see the 1.0400 to 1.0500 providing some resistance; if the opposite is true, then expect 1.0200 to be taken out and USD/CAD could be on the way to parity shortly.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 10/16/09. Read More...
We are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the CPI number (core) increases to a release at 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
This is a preview of US CPI m/m 10/15/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.8% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower than 0.5%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.
This is a preview of New Zealand CPI q/q 10/14/09. Read More...
2:00pm (NY Time) US FOMC Meeting Minutes
ACTION: N/A
FOMC Meeting minutes is released 3 weeks after the Fed Fund Rate decision, and we get 8 rate decisions out of the year from Federal Reserve, therefore also about 8 of these minutes releases.
This is a preview of US FOMC Meeting Minutes 10/14/09. Read More...
Last week was a surprising week to say the least, as the biggest news out of the entire currency market was the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiking its bank rate by 0.25% to 3.25% and surprised the entire world in the process…
Needless to say, immediately after the release, Equity market ended its downward correction, and a renewed sense of risk appetite took over, pushing all high-yield currencies, commodity currencies, Equity indices, to fresh new 2009 highs.
This is a preview of Market Economic Outlook as of 10/12/09. Read More...
Our surprise factor (or deviation) is at 0.2%. If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 1.5% then we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the Inflation number decreases to 1.1% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we tend to see the market overreact. If our S. Factor gets hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.
This is a preview of UK CPI y/y 10/13/09. Read More...
We will focus on the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is expected at +5.0K this month. If we get a surprise release of of at least 25K, making it at +30k or -20K, we can conservatively expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, based on a historical probability of about 80% of chance.
Even if our BUY/SELL figure is hit, it is still important to keep an eye on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%. If it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan, and in the event of a conflict, we will stay out of the market.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 10/09/09. Read More...
Trichet will once again deliver a statement along with a Long and boring Q&A session afterwards. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always listening to Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO lose against all other currencies.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 10/08/09. Read More...
ECB (European Central Bank) will most likely leave rates at an unchanged level of 1.00% once again. It is almost impossible for ECB to surprise the market at this point and cut or hike current rate by 0.25%. Numerous of ECB officials, including chairman Trichet, stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 10/08/09. Read More...
7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
BOE’s MPC is scheduled to release interest rate decision today, and it’s expected that Bank of England will keep the current rate at 0.50% (again). If you remember last rate decision, BOE kept both interest rate and APF unchanged, which turned out to be a bullish signal for the sterling.
This is a preview of BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 10/08/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we would SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09. Read More...
We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 10/06/09. Read More...
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