10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.9 Previous 52.9
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 56.0 SELL 51.0
The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI releases are highly regarded by traders since their inception, and throughout the years they have been proven to be extremely accurate in predicting the long-term trend as well as a leading indicator over the Manufacturing sector in the economy; this will be the first look of the new quarter as these purchasing managers express their opinion over the economy.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 10/01/09. Read More...
DEFINITION: “UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”
This is a preview of UK Manufacturing PMI 10/01/09. Read More...
One of my worst fears is probably going to the dentist, and today marks the day that I, Henry Liu, resisted the urge to break down and cry like little school girls as many grown men have done before me, and announce that I am now 2 wisdom teeth less, and 2 more to go. (That’s me after my Dentist Appointment…)
Simple things such as going to the dentist could have a huge impact in a trader’s life, as I rate this event ”catastrophic” impact level, equivalent to about 10 Nonfarm Payroll events combined, because if you are trading with stress, pain, or any kind of anxiety, you could be risking an account blowout.
This is a preview of Fear and Greed – Henry went to the dentist – 9/29/09. Read More...
The simple plan for today’s Retail Sales is that if we get a better than the forecast figure of 0.6%, we would BUY AUD/USD; and if we get worse than the forecast figure, somewhere in the vicinity of -0.1% or worse, we will SELL AUD/USD.
The Australian Dollar has been untouchable lately due to the strong risk appetite sentiment that drives the market, and it is likely to show further strength if we get a better than expected release. However, with USD consolidating with its recent losses, we could see a short window of weakness for the AUD as it also consolidate its recent gains. The long term perception for AUD/USD is still above the 0.9000 level in the next 3 ~ 6 months, in my humble opinion.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/29/09. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 442K Previous 433K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY 512K SELL 370K
New Home Sales is expected at 442K, if the number is lower, it would be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY.
This is a preview of US New Home Sales 09/25/09. Read More...
Tomorrow starts the 2-day G20 meeting in Pittsburgh as the group of 20 nations meet and discuss a wide range of issues, including the current market inbalances, exit plans over the economic recovery, protectionism, and of course the situation with the IMF.
Obviously high on the agenda will be the issues of limiting executive compensation in the financial sector and possibly a move to increase reserve capital of banks in order to lower investment leverage that was responsible for the crisis in the first place.
This is a preview of G20 Meeting September 24~25, 2009. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.36M Previous 5.24M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.76M SELL 4.90M
Existing Home Sales is expected at 5.36M, and our safe deviation is 400K, or 0.4M; if the number is lower, it would be bad for the USD and good for risk aversion; if the number is higher, then it would be good for USD and good for risk appetite.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 09/24/09. Read More...
FOMC is going to render its Federal Fund Rate decision today, it is likely to be an unchanged verdict by keeping current rate a 0.25%. As a matter of fact, Fed Fund futures predicts that FOMC will keep rates unchanged from now all the way to December of 2009 (and beyond) for a possibly rate change…
This is a preview of US FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision and Statement 09/23/09. Read More...
Market has been very unforgiving to the USD lately as the greenback slips into further weakness; as a matter of fact, the more recovery we see, more reason for USD to weaken, at least until Bernanke starts rate hiking cycle…
Let me explain,
This is a preview of Where is US Dollar going?. Read More...
I have compiled a list based on their respective economic outlook from recent economic indicators and news releases. USD is excluded it is considered more as a safe-haven and the “new carry” currency… U.S. economic outlook might not have much influence on the direction of USD, and as a matter of fact we might see a scenario of USD vs ALL Majors in the near term.
As far as USD being the “new carry” currency, just check the 3-month LIBOR rate, you’ll see that USD is at 0.29%, GBP at 0.57%, EUR at 0.72%, and JPY at 0.35%. With USD being the lowest cost currency to borrow from, it makes sense to see further decline of USD, and it will remain so until the actual overnight rate starts to rise.
This is a preview of Global Fundamental Outlook Score Card As of 09/21/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Core Retail Sales release, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look at the retail spending of the economy.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 09/22/09. Read More...
If you are looking for information on economic news and currency market [FOREX], look no further, because you’ve found it! You’ll not only find money-making trade plans and analysis on upcoming economic news, but also videos from actual trades taken live during these news releases based on the same trade plans, all for free!
If you are a beginner or never traded news releases, then please take a moment and read my post on the basics of forex news trading, you’ll get the basic idea of what are these economic news releases…
And of course, once you’re done with that, make sure you also read my post on the logics and the How-To of Forex News Trading, as I try to explain Forex Fundamental News Trading in a nutshell.
This is a preview of New to FOREX News Trading or this blog? Start Here!. Read More...
SNB (Swiss National Bank) is expected to leave the official Libor rate unchanged at 0.25%, as almost all of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg would agree. However, the real market mover may be the accompanied statement by the SNB governor Jean-Pierre Roth, who may intervene for the currency verbally yet again as SNB has done in the past.
It is known in the market that SNB has successfully broken the wills of the market on regarding the CHF as a safe-haven currency, as SNB Roth consistently intervened for the currency both verbally and central bank actions… And as a result, CHF is no longer a strong safe-haven currency as compared to the US Dollar and Japanese Yen.
This is a preview of Libor Rate Decision 09/17/09. Read More...
The safe deviation for Canada Core CPI based on historical data is a minimum of 0.3% of deviation, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
Canadian Dollar has been trading very strong lately and the USD/CAD is currently around the 1.0700 level. As the low of August 2009 is at 1.0620 area, which may provide a medium support for the pair, I’ll be looking for a bounce from there; at break of which, I’ll be looking for the next area of support at 1.0400…
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 09/17/09. Read More...
Our focus will once again be on the UK Retail Sales, which is measurement of activities at the retail level, therefore a higher Retail sales number means better economy and better for Sterling.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 09/17/09. Read More...
Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade. Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent “CASH FOR CLUNKERS” program, which has used up all of the funds allocated for it by the government; therefore the headline Retail Sales should be significantly higher than the Core Retail Sales, as the Headline number is expected to be at 1.9% (E). However, the US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of real consumer discretionary spending.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 09/15/09. Read More...
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
This is a preview of UK CPI y/y 09/15/09. Read More...
Another seemingly quiet week has gone by but the market has not failed to surprise us yet again… The biggest news last week was not the rate decisions nor the lack of high-impact trend changing news releases, but the apparent endless strength of the Japanese Yen under the new ruling party, which managed to push the USD/JPY close to the 90.00 handle, approaching that yearly low level of 87.00…
And it is not a surprise to see that USD also suffered some heavy losses last week with every major currency breaking to new levels against it. U.S. Dollar Index dropped to 76.45 for the week, making new lows for the year once again…
This is a preview of Weekly Outlook as of September 13, 2009 (09/13/09). Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) council members meet 8 times a year and discuss where to set their current Interest rate. Since interest rate is directly related to inflation, it is probably THE MOST HIGH IMPACT news for traders who trade CAD crosses. But since there are absolutely no expectation for a surprise cut or hike release, market will most likely concentrate on the accompanied statement by BOC Governor.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision 09/10/09. Read More...
BOE is scheduled to release its interest rate decision once again today, and it is expected that Bank of England will keep the current rate 0.50%. But ever since the last rate decision and surprise increase in the APF by 50 billion pound, Sterling has been trading under substantial pressure.
One interesting observation is the MPC meeting minutes of the last rate decision meeting, which came out at 6-3, with the majority voting for an increase in the APF by 50 Billion Pound, and 3 dissenters including Governor King, voting for a 75 Billion Pound APF increasse. If we do get an additional announcement on more increase in the AFP, we could see Sterling retest recent support areas.
This is a preview of UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 09/10/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is considered as a high impact report. If the release is better, which will be good for AUD, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the release is worse, which will be bad for AUD, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 10K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -38K or worse to be taking the trade safely. According to past history, if we do get our tradable releases, market has 80% of probability to move 40+ pips in the direction of our release.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09. Read More...
RBNZ has been keeping its rate on hold for 2 rate decisions in a row as the last cut was back in April this year from 3.00% down to 2.50%. The fundamental outlook for NZ remains bleak as during the last rate decision Governor Bollard expressed a concern that rates could move lower.
What I would be looking for is a surprise rate cut decision or at least a cautionary tone over the future recovery as I don’t think RBNZ is at a position to be hiking rates; therefore I can almost be sure this release would be a somewhat bearish for NZD.
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 09/09/09. Read More...
If we get better release numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted at 0.6%, it would be good for the AUD/USD and provide temporary support, we would BUY AUD/USD. If we get worse release numbers, somewhere in the -0.1% or worse, we will SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/08/09. Read More...
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 09/04/09. Read More...
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One of my worst fears is probably going to the dentist, and today marks the day that I, Henry Liu, resisted the urge to break down and cry like little school girls as many grown men have done before me, and announce that I am now 2 wisdom teeth less, and 2 more to go. (That’s me after my Dentist Appointment…)
