Australia GDP q/q 09/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 31, 2009 under AUD GDP q/q, Australia, Forex News Trade | 3 Comments to Read

9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q     Forecast 0.6%    Previous 0.4%
ACTION: AUD/USD      BUY 0.8%        SELL 0.3%

We’ll be trading the quarterly GDP number out of Australia, which is expected to be the second quarterly positive release as the consensus expectation is at 0.6%.  As a technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, a two consecutive quarters release of positive GDP certainly implies recovery.  This should add to the already highly demanded AUD and boost risk appetite sentiment should we get a 0.8% release.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 09/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA | 3 Comments to Read

10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI   Forecast 50.6   Previous 48.9
ACTION: USD/JPY                                    BUY 53.0             SELL 48.0

The ISM PMI releases are highly regarded by traders and investors alike since they have been proven throughout the years to be extremely accurate and as a first look and leading indicator over the Manufacturing sector in the economy, this will be the first release in over a year to be over the medium 50 figure.

UK Manufacturing PMI 09/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Read the First Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.5   Previous 50.8
ACTION: GBP/USD                                     BUY 53.5              SELL         49.0

UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.  If this number stays above 50, there shouldn’t be much market reaction; however, if this number falls below 50, GBP could be under some selling pressure as the confidence level for Sterling has been low among investors.

RBA Interest Rate Decision 09/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under AUD Interest Rate, Australia, Forex News Trade | Read the First Comment

12:30am (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision     Forecast 3.00%    Previous 3.00%
ACTION: AUD/USD  N/A

Reserve Bank of Australia  (RBA) is likely to keep its official cash rate unchanged at 3.00% as expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters.  As a matter of fact, due to the recent optimism in the market and signs of early recovery, the next logical move for RBA in its rate policy is likely to be hiking rates rather than cutting rates.

Canada GDP m/m 08/31/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Read the First Comment

8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m   Forecast 0.2%  Previous -0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD          BUY -0.1%         SELL 0.5%

I’ll be trading the CA GDP month on month figure, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.

Hello Alaska!!! Vacation Schedule – 8/21/09 ~ 8/30/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 19, 2009 under General | 2 Comments to Read

My Dear Blog Followers!!!

Finally it is time for me to take on that end of summer trip I’ve been waiting for, and this time my destination is a 7-day cruise to Alaska!!!  I will be gone for about 10 days, and hopefully I’ll be back trading Forex on Sunday 8/30/09…

It is obviously a much needed vacation as I have been working hard trading, running preparations for my upcoming Forex trade room, recording tons of videos, and finishing my DVD, the Henry Liu’s Forex System…  Finally I get to take some time off, and if God willing, I will be back fully charged for another 3 months of intensive trading until December, where I will close this year early…

UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | 2 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 0.3%   Previous 1.2%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 0.9%       SELL -0.3%

Our focus will once again be on the UK Retail Sales, which measures activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for Sterling.

The deviation for this release will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 80%.  If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation, we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.

Canada Core CPI m/m 08/19/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 18, 2009 under CAD Core CPI m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m   Forecast 0.1%   Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD          BUY -0.2%       SELL 0.4%

I’ll be looking for at least a 0.3% of deviation to trade this release as per historical data any less deviation would not move the market in a significant manner.  Therefore if the Core CPI comes out at 0.4%, which will be good for the CAD, I’ll be selling USD/CAD; if the Core CPI comes out at a -0.2% or worse, I’ll be buying USD/CAD… 

UK MPC Meeting Minutes 08/19/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | 2 Comments to Read

4:30am UK MPC Meeting Minutes      Forecast 0-0-9   Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD      Depending on Market Reaction

BOE or Bank of England Monetary Policy Committe will be disclosing the meeting minutes over the Interest Rate Decision meeting two weeks ago along with the actual vote count.  Last rate decision BOE decided to increase its APF (Asset Purchase Facility) by another 50 Billion Pound, which was against market expectation as most analysts were expecting a 25 Billion increase to keeping the current program unchanged.  The effects of this surprise increase are still visible in today’s market, as Sterling went on a sell-off streak to as much as 700 pips of loss against USD, and 900+ pips against the JPY.

US PPI m/m 08/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 17, 2009 under Forex News Trade, General, USA | 3 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US PPI m/m  Forecast -0.2%   Previous 1.8%
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 2.0%    SELL -2.0%

Producer Price Index or PPI, measures the cost for goods and services (raw materials) that producers or manufacturers pay; it is a leading indicator because if these raw material costs more to the manufacturers, the overall prices on the finished products might increase as these higher costs are usually passed down.

In extreme cases, PPI may affect the CPI release.  However, since this data has been pretty much ignored by traders for quite a while, I don’t have much expectation for a trade, but just in case market reacts to a huge deviation, if we get that deviation, I’ll jump in the market with hopes to make some pips, so stand by while I record this trade live.

EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment 08/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

5:00am (NY Time) EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment  Forecast 45.2  Previous 39.5
ACTION: N/A  EUR/USD

I normally don’t trade this release but I feel it is important to mention it today since this report has been gaining popularity by traders as Germany is one of the biggest economies in the Euro Zone; therefore better German economy means better European economy as a whole.

The ZEW Economic sentiment is a survey of around 350 German institutional investors and analysts on their opinion of the economic outlook for Germany in the next 6 months. This report is considered as a leading indicator, which reflects the sentiment of these professionals, but not the actual health of the economy.  But since these professionals are highly informed in their respective fields, this indicator is highly regarded by traders as early signs of market trend.

UK CPI y/y 08/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | 12 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 1.5%    Previous 1.8%
ACTION:  GBP/USD     BUY 1.7%    SELL 1.3%

CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).  It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

Fundamental News Wrap-up for the week of August 10~14, 2009

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips, Forex News Trade | 3 Comments to Read

Last week’s major news was the FOMC rate decision and the accompanied statement, while no one expected any changes in the current Interest rate, most were expecting some kind of optimistic follow-up from the Fed on back of that better than expected NFP releases last Friday.  However, we got the usual rhetoric with a possible extension of the treasury purchases to the end of October instead of the previous end of September announcement.

Although it could hardly be called “extension” to the purchase program as the final amount remains unchanged, but the fact that there is no urgency to complete this stimulus program in September may provide argument for both bears and bulls.

Henry Liu Forex System DVD Contest

Posted by Henry Liu on August 13, 2009 under General | 27 Comments to Read

Hello everyone:

Here is an email that I sent out yesteday on my pre-release DVD contest.  However, I am extending the deadline to the 19th of August, 2009 so there is plenty of time for everyone to participate.  Not only you will enter to win a copy of my upcoming DVD, but I will also send you to my special trading trick link, which is invaluable for people who don’t know it yet… and of course, you’d be helping me out tremendously.  So please take a few minutes, you know I appreciate it:)

Subject: I need your help

Hello:

US Core CPI m/m 08/14/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Core CPI m/m, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.1%   Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY     BUY 0.3%      SELL -0.1%

CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).  It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

RBA Stevens Testify 08/13/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 12, 2009 under Australia, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to testify in front of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney on the RBA Annual Report.  Most likely we’ll see a repeat of recent rhetoric and some Q&A session taking place.  But since Stevens is the head of RBA, anything he says have the potential to move the market.  It is important for Forex Traders to pay attention to these speeches, testimonies as we can often get a hint of future monetary policy direction, which is the REAL driver of currency market.

NZ Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

6:45pm (NY Time)  NZ Retail Sales Forecast -0.3%  Previous -0.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 0.3%      SELL -1.0%

This is measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, we’ll be looking for a deviation of at least 0.6% from the forecast number, therefore a positive 0.3% will be bullish signal for NZD, or a -0.1% will be a negative signal for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal.

DEFINITION

US Core Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Retail Sales, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.2%  Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 0.8%        SELL -0.3%

Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade.  Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent cash for clunker program.  US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of consumer discretionary spending.

US Canada Trade Balance 08/12/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 11, 2009 under CAD Trade Balance, Canada, Forex News Trade, US Trade Balance, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am (NY Time) USA Trade Balance     BUY USD/JPY -14.4B   SELL USD/JPY -35.4B
8:30am (NY TIme) CAD Trade Balance     SELL EUR/CAD 0.1B    BUY  EUR/CAD -1.3B

Again we have both trade balances coming out at the same time. The object will be to trade one currency pair only, so its either EUR/CAD or USD/JPY.  Do not trade both or you might get confused and lose money.

If you are trading the USD/CAD pair, you need to watch out for both news releases and don’t get caught in the middle if they are in conflict.  If you are unsure, just skip this trade or observe market movement and test it out with a demo account. You can also trade EUR/CAD to avoid the conflict with USD/CAD.

US FOMC Rate Decision and Statement 08/12/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Interest Rate, USA | 5 Comments to Read

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its interest rate decision today, it is likely to be an unchanged verdict keeping current Fed rate a 0.25%.  As a matter of fact, Fed Fund prediction is that FOMC will keep rates unchanged from now all the way to December of 2009, where we might get a possibility of a hike.

UK BOE Inflation Report 08/12/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under General, Great Britain | 4 Comments to Read

5:30am (NY Time) BOE Inflation Report   N/A
ACTION: GBP/USD or GBP/JPY      BUY Hawkish     SELL Dovish

This is a quarterly report from BOE on projections of inflation and the economy for the next 2 years.  It is a very high impact report and it could affect the short-term to mid-term trend of Sterling.

If BOE is optimistic in its projection and focus on recovery, we should see immediately appreciation of GBP; if the opposite is true, then Sterling will probably drop substantially.  We’ll look at market reaction then wait for entry.

Forex Fundamental Economic Outlook 08/10/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 9, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips | 2 Comments to Read

Currency Market Fundamental Outlook August 10, 2009

The main event last week was undoubtedly the Nonfarm Payroll changes, which not only went against the ADP release on Wednesday, but it was a landslide surprise that changed the predominant USD trend yet again.

If you remember the effect on the NFP report back in June and the market reaction in the subsequent week that follows, you’d see a likely pattern emerging, and that pattern is clearly going to be USD strength.

US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 08/07/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 6, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA | Read the First Comment

8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll  Forecast -320K  Previous -467K
ACTION: USD/JPY           BUY -250K      SELL -400K

Our first focus will be on the Headline Number, which is expected to be at -320K.  Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -400K or -250K.  Now wait for the revision number, which is -467K.  Market is likely to overract with the Revision number, so if the revision does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.

Canada Employment Changes m/m 08/07/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade | Read the First Comment

7:00am (NY Time) CA Employment Change   Forecast -19K  Previous -7.4K
ACTION: USD/CAD       SELL +6K    BUY -42K

Canada’s Employment Change is expected at -19.0K this month. If we get a surprise of at least 23K, making it at -42k or +6K, then the market will most likely move 40 pips within the hour.

There is an 86% of chance for USD/CAD to move 40 pips if our BUY/SELL figure is hit.  However, it is important to keep an eye also on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%, and if it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan.  In the event of a conflict, it will be a no trade.

RBA Monetary Policy Statement 08/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 5, 2009 under Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Monetary Policy Statement
ACTION:    AUD/USD      BUY (Bullish)     SELL (Bearish)

RBA issues a statement on its Monetary Policy about 4 times a year.  As statement on RBA’s website “… These Statements assess current economic conditions and the prospects for inflation and output growth. These Statements have replaced the Semi-Annual Statements on Monetary Policy and the reports on the Economy and Financial Markets which were previously published by the Bank.”

Since we are likely to get hints of future policy direction, whether a credit hiking cycle is coming next quarter or at the beginning of the 2010, or should we expect a prolonged recession and further contraction in the economy… these statements will surely move the market.

ECB Trichet Press Conference 08/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Press Conference, Europe, Forex News Trade | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) EU Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: EUR/USD     BUY (Hawkish)   SELL (Dovish)

Trichet will deliver a statement along with a pretty-lengthy Q&A session after.  This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies.  If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if  Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO losing against all other currencies.

If you have never traded this release, it is better to stay out of the market.  Wait until around 9:30am then follow the trend.  If Trichet is hawkish, EUR/USD will gain throughout the session and may even carry over to Friday.  Therefore there are plenty of opportunities to trade after the market has already established itself.

ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 08/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision  Forecast 1.00%  Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD       N/A

ECB (European Central Bank) is once again to leave rates at an unchanged level of 1.00%.  It is very unlikely for ECB to surprise the market and cut current rate or even hike the rate by 0.25%.  As numerous of ECB officials stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral.

BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 08/06/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Interest Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

BOE is scheduled to release its interest rate decision today, it is expected that the Bank of England will keep the current rate unchanged at 0.50%.  However, there are concerns of possible ending of BOE’s Quantitative Easing policy, or at very least a gradual unwinding of this policy.  If this were to be confirmed with the accompanied rate statement, we could see some renewed demand for Sterling as it is an extremely bullish sign for the currency.

Australia Employment Changes m/m 08/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 4, 2009 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade | Be the First to Comment

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast -17.8  Previous -21.4K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +6K   SELL -40K

This news release is similar to US. Non-Farm payroll.  It is a high impact report.  If the number is better, which is good for Audi, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the number is worse, which is bad for Audi, we would SELL AUD/USD.

In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 6K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -40K or worse to be taking the trade safely.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 08/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA | Be the First to Comment

10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI   Forecast 48.1   Previous 47.0
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 50.5      SELL 45.5

We’ll trade today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector.  This will also provide clues of possible change in the employment trend.  We’ll be careful to interpret the reaction because of the wide impact it has as an US news event.

DEFINITION