Posted by Henry Liu on August 31, 2009 under AUD GDP q/q, Australia, Forex News Trade |
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
We’ll be trading the quarterly GDP number out of Australia, which is expected to be the second quarterly positive release as the consensus expectation is at 0.6%. As a technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, a two consecutive quarters release of positive GDP certainly implies recovery. This should add to the already highly demanded AUD and boost risk appetite sentiment should we get a 0.8% release.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 09/01/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA |
10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.6 Previous 48.9
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 53.0 SELL 48.0
The ISM PMI releases are highly regarded by traders and investors alike since they have been proven throughout the years to be extremely accurate and as a first look and leading indicator over the Manufacturing sector in the economy, this will be the first release in over a year to be over the medium 50 figure.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 09/01/09
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Tags: institute of supply management, ISM, ism manufacturing index, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Manufacturing PMI, manufacturing sector, PMI, profit taking, Purchasing Manager's Index, purchasing managers, risk appetite, sentiment, US, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI |
4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.5 Previous 50.8
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 53.5 SELL 49.0
UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction. If this number stays above 50, there shouldn’t be much market reaction; however, if this number falls below 50, GBP could be under some selling pressure as the confidence level for Sterling has been low among investors.
This is a preview of UK Manufacturing PMI 09/01/09
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Tags: economic activities, GBP, initial drop, Manufacturing PMI, manufacturing sector, pips, PMI, Purchasing Manager's Index, purchasing managers, retracement, Sterling, UK, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under AUD Interest Rate, Australia, Forex News Trade |
12:30am (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 3.00% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: AUD/USD N/A
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its official cash rate unchanged at 3.00% as expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. As a matter of fact, due to the recent optimism in the market and signs of early recovery, the next logical move for RBA in its rate policy is likely to be hiking rates rather than cutting rates.
This is a preview of RBA Interest Rate Decision 09/01/09
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Tags: AUD, Australia News, bank of australia, bloomberg, current rate, Inflation, initial analysis, Interest rate, Key Interest rate, profit taking, RBA, recovery, Reserve Bank of Australia, reserve bank of australia rba, risk appetite, trade, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade |
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous -0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.1% SELL 0.5%
I’ll be trading the CA GDP month on month figure, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 08/31/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on August 19, 2009 under General |
My Dear Blog Followers!!!
Finally it is time for me to take on that end of summer trip I’ve been waiting for, and this time my destination is a 7-day cruise to Alaska!!! I will be gone for about 10 days, and hopefully I’ll be back trading Forex on Sunday 8/30/09…
It is obviously a much needed vacation as I have been working hard trading, running preparations for my upcoming Forex trade room, recording tons of videos, and finishing my DVD, the Henry Liu’s Forex System… Finally I get to take some time off, and if God willing, I will be back fully charged for another 3 months of intensive trading until December, where I will close this year early…
This is a preview of Hello Alaska!!! Vacation Schedule – 8/21/09 ~ 8/30/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales |
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.2%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3%
Our focus will once again be on the UK Retail Sales, which measures activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for Sterling.
The deviation for this release will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 80%. If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation, we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09
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Tags: Forecast, Forex News, GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, market trend, pips, pre market, release time, retail level, Retail Sales, Sterling, trade, trend, UK, uk retail sales
Posted by Henry Liu on August 18, 2009 under CAD Core CPI m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade |
7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
I’ll be looking for at least a 0.3% of deviation to trade this release as per historical data any less deviation would not move the market in a significant manner. Therefore if the Core CPI comes out at 0.4%, which will be good for the CAD, I’ll be selling USD/CAD; if the Core CPI comes out at a -0.2% or worse, I’ll be buying USD/CAD…
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 08/19/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes |
4:30am UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 0-0-9 Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD Depending on Market Reaction
BOE or Bank of England Monetary Policy Committe will be disclosing the meeting minutes over the Interest Rate Decision meeting two weeks ago along with the actual vote count. Last rate decision BOE decided to increase its APF (Asset Purchase Facility) by another 50 Billion Pound, which was against market expectation as most analysts were expecting a 25 Billion increase to keeping the current program unchanged. The effects of this surprise increase are still visible in today’s market, as Sterling went on a sell-off streak to as much as 700 pips of loss against USD, and 900+ pips against the JPY.
This is a preview of UK MPC Meeting Minutes 08/19/09
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Tags: APF, asset purchase, Bank of England, BOE, GBP, gbp usd, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, market sentiment, Meeting Minutes, Minutes, MPC, pips, sentiment, Sterling, trade, UK
Posted by Henry Liu on August 17, 2009 under Forex News Trade, General, USA |
8:30am (NY Time) US PPI m/m Forecast -0.2% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 2.0% SELL -2.0%
Producer Price Index or PPI, measures the cost for goods and services (raw materials) that producers or manufacturers pay; it is a leading indicator because if these raw material costs more to the manufacturers, the overall prices on the finished products might increase as these higher costs are usually passed down.
In extreme cases, PPI may affect the CPI release. However, since this data has been pretty much ignored by traders for quite a while, I don’t have much expectation for a trade, but just in case market reacts to a huge deviation, if we get that deviation, I’ll jump in the market with hopes to make some pips, so stand by while I record this trade live.
This is a preview of US PPI m/m 08/18/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Europe, Forex News Trade |
5:00am (NY Time) EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forecast 45.2 Previous 39.5
ACTION: N/A EUR/USD
I normally don’t trade this release but I feel it is important to mention it today since this report has been gaining popularity by traders as Germany is one of the biggest economies in the Euro Zone; therefore better German economy means better European economy as a whole.
The ZEW Economic sentiment is a survey of around 350 German institutional investors and analysts on their opinion of the economic outlook for Germany in the next 6 months. This report is considered as a leading indicator, which reflects the sentiment of these professionals, but not the actual health of the economy. But since these professionals are highly informed in their respective fields, this indicator is highly regarded by traders as early signs of market trend.
This is a preview of EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment 08/18/09
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Tags: bullish signal, economic outlook, economic sentiment, economy, EUR, euro zone, european economy, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Germany, indicator, institutional investors, pips, sentiment, Sterling, UK, USD, ZEW
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y |
4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y Forecast 1.5% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.7% SELL 1.3%
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
This is a preview of UK CPI y/y 08/18/09
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Tags: CPI, cpi number, Forex, Forex News, Fundamental News, fundamental outlook, GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Inflation, retracement, Sterling, UK, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips, Forex News Trade |
Last week’s major news was the FOMC rate decision and the accompanied statement, while no one expected any changes in the current Interest rate, most were expecting some kind of optimistic follow-up from the Fed on back of that better than expected NFP releases last Friday. However, we got the usual rhetoric with a possible extension of the treasury purchases to the end of October instead of the previous end of September announcement.
Although it could hardly be called “extension” to the purchase program as the final amount remains unchanged, but the fact that there is no urgency to complete this stimulus program in September may provide argument for both bears and bulls.
This is a preview of Fundamental News Wrap-up for the week of August 10~14, 2009
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Tags: bullish market, Currency Trading News, Currency Trading Tips, current interest rate, FOMC, fomc statement, Henry Liu, NFP, risk aversion, treasury securities, unanimous vote, USD, Weekly Outlook
Posted by Henry Liu on August 13, 2009 under General |
Hello everyone:
Here is an email that I sent out yesteday on my pre-release DVD contest. However, I am extending the deadline to the 19th of August, 2009 so there is plenty of time for everyone to participate. Not only you will enter to win a copy of my upcoming DVD, but I will also send you to my special trading trick link, which is invaluable for people who don’t know it yet… and of course, you’d be helping me out tremendously. So please take a few minutes, you know I appreciate it:)
Subject: I need your help
Hello:
This is a preview of Henry Liu Forex System DVD Contest
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Core CPI m/m, USA |
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 08/14/09
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Tags: Core CPI, CPI, cpi number, Forex, Forex News, Inflation, inflation number, JPY, risk appetite, risk aversion, US, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on August 12, 2009 under Australia, Forex News Trade |
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to testify in front of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney on the RBA Annual Report. Most likely we’ll see a repeat of recent rhetoric and some Q&A session taking place. But since Stevens is the head of RBA, anything he says have the potential to move the market. It is important for Forex Traders to pay attention to these speeches, testimonies as we can often get a hint of future monetary policy direction, which is the REAL driver of currency market.
This is a preview of RBA Stevens Testify 08/13/09
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Tags: AUD, Australia, bank of australia, currency market, Glenn, Glenn Stevens, liquidity, new traders, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Stevens
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand |
6:45pm (NY Time) NZ Retail Sales Forecast -0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 0.3% SELL -1.0%
This is measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, we’ll be looking for a deviation of at least 0.6% from the forecast number, therefore a positive 0.3% will be bullish signal for NZD, or a -0.1% will be a negative signal for NZD. We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal.
DEFINITION
This is a preview of NZ Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Retail Sales, USA |
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.3%
Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade. Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent cash for clunker program. US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of consumer discretionary spending.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09
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Tags: Forex News, Fundamental News, JPY, market trend, pips, Retail Sales, risk aversion, US, USA, USD, usd jpy, volatile component
Posted by Henry Liu on August 11, 2009 under CAD Trade Balance, Canada, Forex News Trade, US Trade Balance, USA |
8:30am (NY Time) USA Trade Balance BUY USD/JPY -14.4B SELL USD/JPY -35.4B
8:30am (NY TIme) CAD Trade Balance SELL EUR/CAD 0.1B BUY EUR/CAD -1.3B
Again we have both trade balances coming out at the same time. The object will be to trade one currency pair only, so its either EUR/CAD or USD/JPY. Do not trade both or you might get confused and lose money.
If you are trading the USD/CAD pair, you need to watch out for both news releases and don’t get caught in the middle if they are in conflict. If you are unsure, just skip this trade or observe market movement and test it out with a demo account. You can also trade EUR/CAD to avoid the conflict with USD/CAD.
This is a preview of US Canada Trade Balance 08/12/09
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Tags: CAD, cad definition, currency, EUR, JPY, trade, USA, usa trade, USD, usd cad, usd jpy
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US Interest Rate, USA |
2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.50% SELL <0.25%
FOMC is going to release its interest rate decision today, it is likely to be an unchanged verdict keeping current Fed rate a 0.25%. As a matter of fact, Fed Fund prediction is that FOMC will keep rates unchanged from now all the way to December of 2009, where we might get a possibility of a hike.
This is a preview of US FOMC Rate Decision and Statement 08/12/09
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Tags: asset purchase, Bernanke, Fed, fed rate, FOMC, fomc statement, Forex, Forex News, Fundamental News, fundamental outlook, Inflation, Interest rate, interest rate decision, JPY, Key Interest rate, risk appetite, US, USA, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under General, Great Britain |
5:30am (NY Time) BOE Inflation Report N/A
ACTION: GBP/USD or GBP/JPY BUY Hawkish SELL Dovish
This is a quarterly report from BOE on projections of inflation and the economy for the next 2 years. It is a very high impact report and it could affect the short-term to mid-term trend of Sterling.
If BOE is optimistic in its projection and focus on recovery, we should see immediately appreciation of GBP; if the opposite is true, then Sterling will probably drop substantially. We’ll look at market reaction then wait for entry.
This is a preview of UK BOE Inflation Report 08/12/09
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Tags: BOE, economic health, economic outlook, fundamental outlook, GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, impact report, Inflation, Inflation Report, pips, quarterly report, Sterling, UK
Posted by Henry Liu on August 9, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips |
Currency Market Fundamental Outlook August 10, 2009
The main event last week was undoubtedly the Nonfarm Payroll changes, which not only went against the ADP release on Wednesday, but it was a landslide surprise that changed the predominant USD trend yet again.
If you remember the effect on the NFP report back in June and the market reaction in the subsequent week that follows, you’d see a likely pattern emerging, and that pattern is clearly going to be USD strength.
This is a preview of Forex Fundamental Economic Outlook 08/10/09
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Posted by Henry Liu on August 6, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US Non-Farm Payroll, USA |
8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -320K Previous -467K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -250K SELL -400K
Our first focus will be on the Headline Number, which is expected to be at -320K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -400K or -250K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -467K. Market is likely to overract with the Revision number, so if the revision does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll Changes 08/07/09
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Tags: economic health, Employment, Employment Sector, Forex, Forex News, fundamental outlook, gbp jpy, Job's Market, JPY, NFP, Nonfarm Payroll, pips, profit targets, rate hikes, revision, risk appetite, trade, Unemployment, Unemployment Rate, US, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Employment Change, Canada, Forex News Trade |
7:00am (NY Time) CA Employment Change Forecast -19K Previous -7.4K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL +6K BUY -42K
Canada’s Employment Change is expected at -19.0K this month. If we get a surprise of at least 23K, making it at -42k or +6K, then the market will most likely move 40 pips within the hour.
There is an 86% of chance for USD/CAD to move 40 pips if our BUY/SELL figure is hit. However, it is important to keep an eye also on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%, and if it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan. In the event of a conflict, it will be a no trade.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 08/07/09
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Tags: CAD, economic health, economic outlook, Employment, employment change, Employment Changes, employment release, Employment Sector, Forex, Forex News, Fundamental News, NFP, pips, trade, Unemployment Rate, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on August 5, 2009 under Australia, Forex News Trade |
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Monetary Policy Statement
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY (Bullish) SELL (Bearish)
RBA issues a statement on its Monetary Policy about 4 times a year. As statement on RBA’s website “… These Statements assess current economic conditions and the prospects for inflation and output growth. These Statements have replaced the Semi-Annual Statements on Monetary Policy and the reports on the Economy and Financial Markets which were previously published by the Bank.”
Since we are likely to get hints of future policy direction, whether a credit hiking cycle is coming next quarter or at the beginning of the 2010, or should we expect a prolonged recession and further contraction in the economy… these statements will surely move the market.
This is a preview of RBA Monetary Policy Statement 08/06/09
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Tags: AUD, aud usd, Australia, economic conditions, economy, financial markets, fundamental outlook, Inflation, Monetary, Monetary Policy Statement, pips, RBA, recession, trade, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Press Conference, Europe, Forex News Trade |
8:30am (NY Time) EU Trichet Press Conference
ACTION: EUR/USD BUY (Hawkish) SELL (Dovish)
Trichet will deliver a statement along with a pretty-lengthy Q&A session after. This press conference is usually very volatile and the market is always looking for Trichet’s tone for future ECB policies. If Trichet is hawkish, then we will see EURO gain, if Trichet is dovish, then we will see EURO losing against all other currencies.
If you have never traded this release, it is better to stay out of the market. Wait until around 9:30am then follow the trend. If Trichet is hawkish, EUR/USD will gain throughout the session and may even carry over to Friday. Therefore there are plenty of opportunities to trade after the market has already established itself.
This is a preview of ECB Trichet Press Conference 08/06/09
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Tags: currencies, ECB, EUR, Eurozone, Inflation, Interest rate, Key Interest rate, Minimum Bank Rate, newswire services, Trichet, Trichet Press Conference, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under EUR ECB Interest Rate, Europe, Forex News Trade |
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: EUR/USD N/A
ECB (European Central Bank) is once again to leave rates at an unchanged level of 1.00%. It is very unlikely for ECB to surprise the market and cut current rate or even hike the rate by 0.25%. As numerous of ECB officials stated recently that the current rate is appropriate, the expectation for ECB rates among analysts is pretty much neutral.
This is a preview of ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision 08/06/09
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Tags: Chairman Trichet, current rate, ECB, economic outlook, european central bank, Forecast, Forex, Forex News, Inflation, Interest rate, Key Interest rate, monetary policy, Trichet
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate |
7:00am (NY Time) UK Interest Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD N/A
BOE is scheduled to release its interest rate decision today, it is expected that the Bank of England will keep the current rate unchanged at 0.50%. However, there are concerns of possible ending of BOE’s Quantitative Easing policy, or at very least a gradual unwinding of this policy. If this were to be confirmed with the accompanied rate statement, we could see some renewed demand for Sterling as it is an extremely bullish sign for the currency.
This is a preview of BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 08/06/09
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Tags: Bank of England, BOE, Central Bank, current rate, economic outlook, Forex, Forex News, fundamental outlook, GBP, gbp jpy, gbp usd, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Interest, Interest rate, interest rate decision, Key Interest rate, MPC, pips, retracement, Sterling, UK, uk interest, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on August 4, 2009 under AUD Employment Change, Australia, Forex News Trade |
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes Forecast -17.8 Previous -21.4K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY +6K SELL -40K
This news release is similar to US. Non-Farm payroll. It is a high impact report. If the number is better, which is good for Audi, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the number is worse, which is bad for Audi, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 6K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -40K or worse to be taking the trade safely.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 08/05/09
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Tags: AUD, Australia News, economic health, Employment, Employment Changes, Employment Sector, Forex, Forex News, impact report, Job's Market, news release, trade, Unemployment, Unemployment Rate, US, USD
Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, US ISM Manufacturing, USA |
10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 48.1 Previous 47.0
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 50.5 SELL 45.5
We’ll trade today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector. This will also provide clues of possible change in the employment trend. We’ll be careful to interpret the reaction because of the wide impact it has as an US news event.
DEFINITION
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 08/05/09
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Tags: economic performance, Employment, employment trend, indicator, institute of supply management, ISM, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, JPY, news event, pips, PMI, Purchasing Manager's Index, purchasing managers, risk aversion, trend, US, USA