8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast -1.4% Previous -5.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -1.1% SELL -1.7%
GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.
This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 07/31/09. Read More...
8:30am CA GDP m/m Forecast -0.4% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.1% BUY -0.7%
Our focus will be on CA GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 07/31/09. Read More...
Every time before I get into a trade, I would analyze the market using my own mental checklist, and #1 item on that list is just a simple question:
REAL REASON FOR THIS TRADE?
Far too many times Forex trader get into the market without the right reason, or for that matter, without a right enough reason. Usually the emotional factor is driving the trade, such as greed or fear of missing out on a potential profitable trade… And I have to confess to this as well, as I remember the days when I used to spend 16 hours a day doing over 24 to 40 trades a day, and when you narrow down all of the BS and technical mambo jumbos, the only reason that compelled me to take those trades was, I wanted to make more money…
This is a preview of Currency Trading Tips #2: Pick your battles!. Read More...
RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be rendering its Interest Rate Decision on the current rate of 2.50%. Analysts consensus is for an unchanged verdict at 2.50% as the current market condition and New Zealand’s economic outlook don’t justify further rate cutting or hiking at this present moment. However, it is possible we might see some speculative market movement prior to this release, as the accompanied statement may disclose future monetary policy direction and surprise the market.
This is a preview of RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision and Statement 07/29/09. Read More...
Durable Goods calculates purchase orders of goods that have a life-expectancy of 3 years or more, instead of goods that are being used up all at once. Examples of durable goods are cars, appliances, business equipments, etc… Core Durable goods is a derivative of Durable goods that excludes Transportation element, which is a better indication of the nation’s economic status, since transportation elements fluctuate from months to months. Forex traders watch this report closely because a strong number shows a healthy outcome for the economy.
This is a preview of US Durable Goods Orders m/m 07/29/09. Read More...
Last week turned out to be another week of risk appetite driven week… Seems like everyone and their cousins are ready to get back in the market and start to “make money” while bunch of so-called analysts are popping up everywhere saying that “recovery will take full force” and “there are more room for this upside move”; if you watched any of these financial channels over the weekend, undoubtedly you should be convinced of what a great opportunity it is… so what are you waiting for?
This is a preview of Currency Trading Tips # 1: Don’t bet the farm… (The Grandma Indicator). Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 353K Previous 342K
ACTION: (USD/JPY) BUY 423K SELL 273K
New Home Sales is expected at 423K, if the number is lower, it would be bad for USD, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY.
This is a preview of US New Home Sales 7/27/09. Read More...
4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q Forecast -0.3% Previous -2.4%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.1% SELL -0.5%
Our focus will be on the GDP, is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP is the primary measure for the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest rate.
This is a preview of UK Prelim GDP q/q 07/24/09. Read More...
Bank of Canada will release a quarterly Monetary Policy report and then hold a press conference with a prepared statement and then followed with a questions and answers session. This monetary policy report usually provides insights over future BOC monetary policy direction and economic projections, which is extremely important for all investors. The press conference scheduled 45 minutes later will also be high impact as the market may be surprised by the answers to many of the questions asked.
This is a preview of BOC Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference 07/23/09. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.82M Previous 4.77M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF BUY 5.22M SELL 4.42M
Existing Home Sales is expected at 4.82M, if the number is lower, it would be bad for the USD; if the number is higher, then it would be good for USD.
Definition:
Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales m/m 07/23/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on Retail Sales, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.
Our surprise factor will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 78%. If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation (or difference), we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.
This is a preview of UK Retail Sales m/m 07/23/09. Read More...
My focus will be on Retail Sales Core, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation, excluding volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.
My surprise factor (Deviation) will be 0.6% on the Core number. If my surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 82%. With USD/CAD at the current level testing the psychological support at 1.1000, we will be looking mainly for LONG USD/CAD trades as the potential for further strength of the CAD is somewhat limited.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales 07/22/09. Read More...
4:30am UK MPC Meeting Minutes Forecast 0-0-9 Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: (GBP/USD) Depending on Market Condition
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will issue detailed minutes over the interest rate decision 2 weeks ago, along with vote count and other issues discussed in the meeting. This is usually a very high impact news event as traders look for clues of BOE’s future monetary policy direction.
This is a preview of BOE MPC Meeting Minutes 07/22/09. Read More...
Hello everyone, as promised, here is the video result for the live trading signal issued last Wednesday (7/15/09) during mid Asian Session on a general risk aversion sentiment, with the following trades:
If you remember it correctly, the numbers in parenthesis were my actual entries, and my original target was 50 pips per trade and then lock in the trade by moving my stop/loss at entry to prevent a winning trade turning into a losing one…
The results were pretty good, at least for my account, listed below are the best case scenarios:
This is a preview of Risk Sentiment Trading – Video for 7/15/09 Signal. Read More...
Here is a trade that I took earlier on today based on a few different reasons, but primarily on Market Cycle. Judging from the levels of GBP/JPY at the time of entry and combining with my overall long-term outlook for this pair, and just the general fundamental outlook for the Sterling (GBP) this week, I felt very confident in taking this trade and seeing it to profit in less than 2 hours.
If you have a couple of minutes to spare, make sure you watch the video below as I show you the basics of Market Cycle trading.
This is a preview of Catching GBP/JPY Off Guard – 07/20/09. Read More...
Fed. Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify in front of House Financial Services Committe in Washington DC on the semi-annual policy report. If Bernanke is hawkish in his tones over future economy outlook, then we should see risk appetite sentiment where USD should gain substantially against JPY; however, if the chairman’s tone were rather dovish, or expresses his concerns over the prolonged recession and contraction of the economy, then we will likely see risk aversion sentiment driving the market, where JPY should gain against USD.
This is a preview of US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Testifies 07/21/09. Read More...
If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 35 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop about 35 pips or so. I am looking for a deviation of at least 0.3% on the quarterly GDP, or I will skip the trade.
CPI Definition
This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q – Consumer Price Index 07/21/09. Read More...
BOC (Bank of Canada) council members meet 8 times a year and discuss where to set their current Interest rate. Since interest rate is directly related to inflation, it is arguably THE MOST HIGH IMPACT news for currency traders who trade the CAD crosses.
Because of the low level that BOC has kept its interest rate and the current market condition, I don’t expect any surprises from the expectation of an unchanged verdict at 0.25%, as many BOC officials also confirm with their previous statements that the official rate will be kept at the current level until spring of 2009.
This is a preview of BOC Interest Rate Decision 07/21/09. Read More...
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 07/17/09. Read More...
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