US Advanced GDP q/q 07/31/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 30, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast -1.4%     Previous -5.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY                                             BUY -1.1%                SELL -1.7%

GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.

Canada GDP m/m 07/31/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD GDP m/m, Canada, Forex News Trade, General | Read the First Comment

8:30am CA GDP m/m     Forecast -0.4%    Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD          SELL 0.1%               BUY -0.7%

Our focus will be on CA GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.

Currency Trading Tips #2: Pick your battles!

Posted by Henry Liu on under Currency Trading Tips | 16 Comments to Read

Every time before I get into a trade, I would analyze the market using my own mental checklist, and #1 item on that list is just a simple question:

REAL REASON FOR THIS TRADE?

Far too many times Forex trader get into the market without the right reason, or for that matter, without a right enough reason.  Usually the emotional factor is driving the trade, such as greed or fear of missing out on a potential profitable trade…  And I have to confess to this as well, as I remember the days when I used to spend 16 hours a day doing over 24 to 40 trades a day, and when you narrow down all of the BS and technical mambo jumbos, the only reason that compelled me to take those trades was, I wanted to make more money…

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision and Statement 07/29/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 28, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | 10 Comments to Read

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be rendering its Interest Rate Decision on the current rate of 2.50%.  Analysts consensus is for an unchanged verdict at 2.50% as the current market condition and New Zealand’s economic outlook don’t justify further rate cutting or hiking at this present moment.  However, it is possible we might see some speculative market movement prior to this release, as the accompanied statement may disclose future monetary policy direction and surprise the market.

US Durable Goods Orders m/m 07/29/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex News Trade, General, USA | 3 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US Durable Goods Orders    Forecast 0.1%     Previous 1.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY                                                   BUY 1.9%              SELL -1.7%

Durable Goods calculates purchase orders of goods that have a life-expectancy of 3 years or more, instead of goods that are being used up all at once. Examples of durable goods are cars, appliances, business equipments, etc…  Core Durable goods is a derivative of Durable goods that excludes Transportation element, which is a better indication of the nation’s economic status, since transportation elements fluctuate from months to months.  Forex traders watch this report closely because a strong number shows a healthy outcome for the economy.

Currency Trading Tips # 1: Don’t bet the farm… (The Grandma Indicator)

Posted by Henry Liu on July 27, 2009 under Currency Trading Tips, General | 3 Comments to Read

Last week turned out to be another week of risk appetite driven week… Seems like everyone and their cousins are ready to get back in the market and start to “make money” while bunch of so-called analysts are popping up everywhere saying that “recovery will take full force” and “there are more room for this upside move”; if you watched any of these financial channels over the weekend, undoubtedly you should be convinced of what a great opportunity it is… so what are you waiting for?

US New Home Sales 7/27/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 26, 2009 under US New Home Sales, USA | 33 Comments to Read

10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales   Forecast 353K  Previous 342K
ACTION: (USD/JPY)                                                 BUY 423K             SELL 273K

New Home Sales is expected at 423K, if the number is lower, it would be bad for USD, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY; if the number is higher, it would be good for USD, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY.

UK Prelim GDP q/q 07/24/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 23, 2009 under Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | 13 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q       Forecast -0.3%    Previous -2.4%
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                               BUY 0.1%                 SELL -0.5%

Our focus will be on the GDP, is defined as the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.  GDP is the primary measure for the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest rate.

BOC Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference 07/23/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 22, 2009 under Canada, Forex Market Sentiment Trading | 6 Comments to Read

Bank of Canada will release a quarterly Monetary Policy report and then hold a press conference with a prepared statement and then followed with a questions and answers session.  This monetary policy report usually provides insights over future BOC monetary policy direction and economic projections, which is extremely important for all investors.  The press conference scheduled 45 minutes later will also be high impact as the market may be surprised by the answers to many of the questions asked.

US Existing Home Sales m/m 07/23/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under General, US Existing Home Sales, USA | Read the First Comment

10:00am (NY Time) US Existing Home Sales        Forecast 4.82M     Previous 4.77M
ACTION: USD/JPY, USD/CHF                                           BUY 5.22M                SELL 4.42M

Existing Home Sales is expected at 4.82M, if the number is lower, it would be bad for the USD; if the number is higher, then it would be good for USD.

Definition:

Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.

UK Retail Sales m/m 07/23/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | 3 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales        Forecast 0.4%     Previous -0.6%
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                                        BUY 1.0%                SELL -0.2%

Our focus will be on Retail Sales, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation; a higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.

Our surprise factor will be 0.6% on the Headline number. If our surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 78%.  If we do not get at least of 0.6% of deviation (or difference), we will not take a trade based on the news, but based on the pre-market trend and the condition of the market at the release time.

Canada Core Retail Sales 07/22/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 21, 2009 under CAD Core Retail Sales, Canada | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales               Forecast 0.4%        Previous -0.5%
ACTION: (USD/CAD)                                    BUY -0.2%                SELL 1.0%

My focus will be on Retail Sales Core, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of the nation, excluding volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency.

My surprise factor (Deviation) will be 0.6% on the Core number. If my surprise factor is hit, we can expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 82%.  With USD/CAD at the current level testing the psychological support at 1.1000, we will be looking mainly for LONG USD/CAD trades as the potential for further strength of the CAD is somewhat limited.

BOE MPC Meeting Minutes 07/22/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | Read the First Comment

4:30am UK MPC Meeting Minutes         Forecast 0-0-9        Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                                        Depending on Market Condition

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee will issue detailed minutes over the interest rate decision 2 weeks ago, along with vote count and other issues discussed in the meeting.  This is usually a very high impact news event as traders look for clues of BOE’s future monetary policy direction.

Risk Sentiment Trading – Video for 7/15/09 Signal

Posted by Henry Liu on July 20, 2009 under Forex Market Sentiment Trading | 14 Comments to Read

Hello everyone, as promised, here is the video result for the live trading signal issued last Wednesday (7/15/09) during mid Asian Session on a general risk aversion sentiment, with the following trades:

SELL GBP/JPY (154.50)
SELL GBP/USD (1.6400)
SELL AUD/USD (0.8000)
SELL EUR/JPY (132.50)

If you remember it correctly, the numbers in parenthesis were my actual entries, and my original target was 50 pips per trade and then lock in the trade by moving my stop/loss at entry to prevent a winning trade turning into a losing one…

The results were pretty good, at least for my account, listed below are the best case scenarios:

Catching GBP/JPY Off Guard – 07/20/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex Market Cycle Trading, Great Britain | Read the First Comment

Here is a trade that I took earlier on today based on a few different reasons, but primarily on Market Cycle.  Judging from the levels of GBP/JPY at the time of entry and combining with my overall long-term outlook for this pair, and just the general fundamental outlook for the Sterling (GBP) this week, I felt very confident in taking this trade and seeing it to profit in less than 2 hours. 

If you have a couple of minutes to spare, make sure you watch the video below as I show you the basics of Market Cycle trading.

US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Testifies 07/21/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex Market Sentiment Trading | Be the First to Comment

Fed. Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify in front of House Financial Services Committe in Washington DC on the semi-annual policy report.  If Bernanke is hawkish in his tones over future economy outlook, then we should see risk appetite sentiment where USD should gain substantially against JPY; however, if the chairman’s tone were rather dovish, or expresses his concerns over the prolonged recession and contraction of the economy, then we will likely see risk aversion sentiment driving the market, where JPY should gain against USD.

Australia CPI q/q – Consumer Price Index 07/21/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under AUD CPI q/q, Australia | Read the First Comment

If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 35 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop about 35 pips or so. I am looking for a deviation of at least 0.3% on the quarterly GDP, or I will skip the trade.

CPI Definition

BOC Interest Rate Decision 07/21/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under CAD Interest Rate, Canada | Be the First to Comment

BOC (Bank of Canada) council members meet 8 times a year and discuss where to set their current Interest rate. Since interest rate is directly related to inflation, it is arguably THE MOST HIGH IMPACT news for currency traders who trade the CAD crosses.

Because of the low level that BOC has kept its interest rate and the current market condition, I don’t expect any surprises from the expectation of an unchanged verdict at 0.25%, as many BOC officials also confirm with their previous statements that the official rate will be kept at the current level until spring of 2009.

Canada Core CPI m/m 07/17/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 16, 2009 under CAD Core CPI m/m, Canada | Be the First to Comment

CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

USD Core CPI m/m Inflation – 07/15/2009

Posted by Henry Liu on July 15, 2009 under US Core CPI m/m | Be the First to Comment

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BOE Rate Decision – 07/09/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 9, 2009 under Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

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GBP/JPY Capitulation – 07/08/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 8, 2009 under Forex Market Sentiment Trading, Great Britain | Be the First to Comment

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CAD Ivey PMI – 07/07/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 7, 2009 under CAD Ivey PMI, Canada | Be the First to Comment

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NFP and ECB Rate News Trade – 07/02/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 2, 2009 under EUR ECB Interest Rate, US Non-Farm Payroll | Be the First to Comment

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USD NFP Market Cycle Trade – 07/02/09

Posted by Henry Liu on under Forex Market Cycle Trading, US Non-Farm Payroll | Read the First Comment

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