Forex Trade Plan For Federal Funds Rate – 08/10/10

bernanke

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision today and most analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged especially after the series of worse than expected economic data during the past few weeks, including the disappointing NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment last Friday.

However, even though there is no chance for a surprise rate change, as predicted by the chart left, (0.0%~0.25% is about 100% probability) the real focus is still on the FOMC statements on future monetary policy.

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Analysis 06/23/10

bernanke

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision today and most analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged especially after the series of worse than expected economic data during the past few weeks, including but not limited to housing, employment, and retail sales.

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Analysis – 04/28/10

FedFundFutureApr10

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision today and most analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until at least Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011, despite of recent positive economic releases in the Housing, Employment, and Retail sectors. 

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 3/16/2010

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marchfff2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.50% SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until at least Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011. Federal Reserve needs more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, and judging from the past 3 months of NFP releases, we are not quite yet there. 

US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011.  As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged). 

FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision & Statement 12/16/09

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the last time in 2009 and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010.  As FOMC rarely make any changes to the key interest rate at the end of the year, there is really no expectation for a surprise change.  As far as FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke are concerned, they have stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the latter part of 2010…

FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision And Statement Analysis 11/04/09

2:15pm (NY Time) US FOMC Rate Decision     Forecast 0.25%  Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY 0.50%    SELL <0.25%

FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010.  This sentiment is also echoed by FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke, who has stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the labor market improves.  With last month’s NFP missing expectation, it is almost a certainty that we’ll get an unchanged verdict.