US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 5.6%  Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 5.9%        SELL 5.3%

We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise.  The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.

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US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 28, 2010 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | 3 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 4.5%     Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 4.8%                SELL 4.2%

Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number.  Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way.  We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%.  Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive.  We will BUY USD/JPY.  However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.

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US Prelim GDP q/q 11/24/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 23, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | Be the First to Comment

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 2.9%  Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 3.2%        SELL 2.6%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number.  Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.

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US Adv. GDP q/q 10/29/09

Posted by Henry Liu on October 28, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 3.2%     Previous -0.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 3.5%                SELL 2.9%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the first quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers.  Analysts are already saying that we could be looking at upward surprises as recent market sentiment is at all year high.  We are looking for a 0.3% deviation on the expected 3.2%.  Therefore if we get a 3.5% on the advanced 3rd quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive.  We will BUY USD/JPY.  However, if we get a 2.9% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling.

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US Advanced GDP q/q 07/31/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 30, 2009 under Forex News Trade, US GDP q/q, USA | 2 Comments to Read

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast -1.4%     Previous -5.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY                                             BUY -1.1%                SELL -1.7%

GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.

This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 07/31/09. Read More...

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