US Prelim GDP q/q Forex Trading Plan (08/27/10)

USA

Here’s the forecast for U.S. Prelim. GDP:

8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 1.5% Previous 2.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.8% SELL 1.2%

The Trade Plan
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the second of three quarterly (Q2) release of U.S. GDP number (Prelim). We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 1.5%. Therefore if we get a 1.8% on the Prelim 2nd quarterly GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 1.2% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

Forex News Analysis & Video For US Advanced GDP q/q 07/30/10

USA

We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same time of this release, therefore I’d recommend to either trade the U.S. release or concentrate on the Canadian release, do not try to trade both of them together… Here’s the forecast for U.S. Adv. GDP:

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 2.5% Previous 2.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 2.8% SELL 2.2%

Trading Plan For US Prelim GDP q/q 5/27/10

USA

US Prelim GDP is also known as the 2nd Quarterly GDP release.  Since GDP is the measurement of the economy, traders pay more attention to this release as any surprise numbers could change the short term trend… Here is the forecast:

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 3.5%  Previous 3.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 3.8%        SELL 3.2%

Here’s How To Trade U.S. Adv. GDP q/q 04/30/10

USA

We are also getting the Canadian monthly GDP release at the same time of this release, therefore I’d recommend to stay out of USD/CAD unless you are planning to trade both news together and they happen to have a conflict…

Here’s the forecast for U.S. Adv. GDP:

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 3.4%     Previous 5.6%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 3.7%                SELL 3.1%

US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 5.6%  Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 5.9%        SELL 5.3%

We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise.  The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.

US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10

8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q     Forecast 4.5%     Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF                     BUY 4.8%                SELL 4.2%

Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number.  Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way.  We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%.  Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive.  We will BUY USD/JPY.  However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.

US Prelim GDP q/q 11/24/09

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 2.9%  Previous 3.5%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 3.2%        SELL 2.6%

Our focus tomorrow will be on the second quarterly release of U.S. GDP numbers.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards; however, the surprise of 3.5% was largely made up by the uptick in Motor Vehicle components, which added 1.66% to the GDP number.  Therefore, the actual GDP release should’ve missed consensus expectation if it wasn’t for the “Cash for Clunkers” program sponsored by the government.