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We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. At the same time, we also have the US Core Retail Sales, which is another strong high impact release that could change the short term market trend; therefore please also read my analysis on that release… Here’s the forecast for the CPI:

We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here’s the forecast:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.3% SELL -0.1%

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.1%  Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.3%      SELL -0.1%

We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. 

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.2%  Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.4%      SELL 0.0%

We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number decreases to -0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. 

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.1%  Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.3%      SELL -0.1%

We’ll be trading the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. 

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m  Forecast 0.2%  Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY        BUY 0.4%      SELL 0.0%

We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%;  if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY).  If the CPI number stays flat or decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY).  Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.