by Henry Liu on April 25, 2012
The entire financial world gathered today to read the FOMC statement and watched the Press Conference live, here’s what you need to know:
The FOMC Statement:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; (1) the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. (2) Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
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by Henry Liu on April 20, 2012
Today’s FOMC Meeting has the potential of changing the Long-Term market sentiment for the USD, but you should not hold your breath because Bernanke could take his time and delay any announcements for QE3 at a later meeting… What’s interesting is the Press Conference at 2:15pm, where Bernanke will be grilled by onsite media members for live Q&A, and if Bernanke wants to make any not-so-subtle comments on QE3, we will be there to trade it…
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by Henry Liu on April 20, 2012
US New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we´re likely to see an inline release today.
Here is the forecast:
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 320 Previous 313K
ACTION: 390 BUY USDJPY/ 250 SELL USDJPY
The Trade Plan
We´ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthen USD aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USDJPY. A stronger number could provide temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD therefore we should look to BUY USDJPY.
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by Henry Liu on April 19, 2012
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 2.5% Previous 3.0%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.6%
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 1st quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
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by Henry Liu on April 18, 2012
US Existing Home Sales is expected to rise slightly from the previous month as current foreclosure rate is still remaining resiliently high. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.62M Previous 4.59M
ACTION: USDJPY BUY 5.00M / GBPUSD BUY 4.20M
The Trade Plan
Because the Housing sector is one of the most foundamental components of the U.S. economy, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of world on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
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by Henry Liu on April 12, 2012
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: 0.0% BUY EURUSD
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by Henry Liu on April 5, 2012
We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 205K Previous 227K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.3% Previous 8.3%
ACTION: 275K SELL EURUSD / 135K BUY EURUSD
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Forex Market Review and Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 14 ~ 18, 2012)
Forex Trading Strategies #3 – The Correct Trend
Forex Trading Strategies #4 – Support and Resistance
Forex Trading Strategies #5 – Market Psychology
US FOMC Meeting Minutes – May 16, 2012 – Forex Strategy
Forex Trading Strategies #2 – The Right Timing
Forex Trading Strategies #1 – The Real Reason