We’ll be focusing on the NFP release today, which is expected at -56K with a previous release of -20K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the market reacted to the NFP with an initial risk appetite sentiment as the Unemployment Rate went down to 9.7% (10.0% expected), but turned into risk aversion as both benchmark revision and actual release figures brought concerns over the recovery (or lack of) in the job’s market…
This is a preview of US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.0 Previous 50.5
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll focusing on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI today, or better known as the U.S. Services PMI, and as all Purchasing Manager’s Indexes, it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.0, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see some USD strength and JPY weakness; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 03/03/2010. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -15K Previous -22K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +55K SELL -85K
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity on the ADP NFP Employment Release today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP Nonfarm Payroll 03/03/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 57.7 Previous 58.4
ACTION: BUY 60.0 SELL 55.0 USD/JPY
We’ll be looking for a possibility to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI today during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some minor consolidation or even a very tightly traded market… Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend changes… And with the NFP scheduled on Friday, this release might have more impact than usual should we get a huge surprise.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 03/01/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.51M Previous 5.45M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.90M SELL 5.10M
We’ll be focusing on trading the Existing Home Sales today, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatilit,y especially if our tradable figures were hit. Given the fact that this is the last high impact news release of the week, we could expect to see some traders waiting for this release before committing to a trade…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 02/26/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 5.6% Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.9% SELL 5.3%
We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number. The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise. The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.
This is a preview of US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010. Read More...
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 354K Previous 342K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 420K SELL 280K
We’ll be focusing on the the New Home Sales figure, which is expected at 354K; our tradable deviation is 70K, and if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possibly the USD/CHF pair as well; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF and possibly further downward pressure on the already sketchy EUR/USD pair.
This is a preview of US New Home Sales 02/24/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Core CPI release today and our minimum tradable deviation deviation is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.4% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number stays flat or decreases to 0.0% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips.
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. once again today. Since we have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, we should concentrate on the Core Release as it provides a better picture of the retail activities than the headline Retail Sales release. However, it’s important to make sure there is no conflict between both releases or we should just stay out of the market.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 02/12/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.1 Previous 49.8
ACTION: BUY 53.5 SELL 48.5 USD/JPY
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 51.1, in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 02/03/10. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -31K Previous -84K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +50K SELL -100K
Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 55.5 Previous 54.9
ACTION: BUY 58.0 SELL 53.0 USD/JPY
Our focus today is to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI during the New York Trading session, and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some correction in the recent rally of the greenback… Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month and possibly trend change.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US ADV GDP q/q Forecast 4.5% Previous 2.2%
ACTION: USD/JPY USD/CHF BUY 4.8% SELL 4.2%
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the fourth quarterly (Q4) release of U.S. Advanced GDP number. Analysts are split with their expectations on this release as it could go either way. We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 4.5%. Therefore if we get a 4.8% on the advanced 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 4.2% release, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. With USD being regarded as safe-haven currency, if we get a worse than expected number, we might still see USD getting stronger as traders scramble to BUY US Treasuries, making USD stronger than most european currencies such as Euro and Sterling, especially in this risk aversion driven market.
This is a preview of US Advanced GDP q/q 01/29/10. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the first time in 2010 and mosts analysts agree that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until Q3 or Q4 of this year, if not 2011. As the Federal Reserve may need more economic data to justify a surprise hike in the interest rate, this rate decision will probably go as expected (or unchanged).
This is a preview of US FOMC Federal Funds Rate Decision 01/27/10. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US New Home Sales Forecast 372K Previous 355K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY 440K SELL 300K
We’ll be looking to the the New Home Sales, which is expected at 372K; our tradable deviation is going to be 70K, so if the release is lower, it would strengthen risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY or possible the USD/CHF pair; if the number is higher, it would fuel risk appetite sentiment, we may see a rally in USD/JPY or USD/CHF.
This is a preview of US New Home Sales 01/27/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US Existing Home Sales Forecast 5.95M Previous 6.54M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 6.35M SELL 5.55M
We’ll be trading the Existing Home Sales, and since Housing news is one of the more important news event out of the US, this news release will certainly cause some volatility especially if our tradable figures were hit. It is important to consider that if we get a better than expected release, USD could suffer somewhat from risk appetite sentiment as signs of housing recovery translate into equity gains; however, a worse release may boost USD demand as investors seek safe-haven shelter in U.S. Treasury. But the reaction of USD may be different against other pairs… for instance, a better release should be bearish for EUR/USD; a worse than expected release will be bad for USD/JPY…
This is a preview of US Existing Home Sales 01/25/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Core CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a minimum 0.3% then we will BUY USD (either SELL EUR/USD or BUY USD/JPY). If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD (BUY EUR/USD or SELL USD/JPY). Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market islikely to to exaggerate its move, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. If you remember what I wrote last time, this is exactly the same consensus expectation as the market is looking at a low yet steady growth in U.S. Inflation for quite some time now…
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 01/15/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Core Retail Sales figure out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am along with Trichet’s press conference; however, since Trichet may delay his press conference a bit, we should focus on this news and then possibly go back to Trichet later. Obviously it is important to trade other pairs than the EUR/USD.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales 01/14/10. Read More...
We’ll focus on the NFP release today, which is expected at -3K with a previous release of -11K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release surprised the market and revived the end of the year USD rally and caused a major trend change by the much better than expected release of -11K from an expectation of -120K. However, in order for USD to maintain its bullish rally well into 2010, it is important that today’s release is either inline with expectation or in the positive territory.
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 50.5 Previous 48.7
ACTION: BUY 53.0 SELL 48.0 USD/JPY
Our focus will be on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI, which is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for directional references on the near-term future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation above the 50 level at 50.5, in the event that 53.0 is reached, we could see USD strength returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 48.0 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and stronger EUR as USD suffers on a disappointing outlook.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Services) 01/06/10. Read More...
FOMC will be releasing its meeting minutes from the last interest rate decision in 2009. If you recall, the last FOMC meeting were somewhat neutral and disappointing as traders were looking for a more bullish tone from the statement. One of the important phrases that traders were looking for was “…keeping rates low… Extended period.”, which if the Feds were to eliminate the “extended period.” part, it would signal a change in the overall monetary policy… However, FOMC decided to keep the phrase and most of the FOMC Statement remain unchanged from the previous release… Here is the complete context:
This is a preview of US FOMC Meeting Minutes 01/06/10. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -74K Previous -169K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -10K SELL -140K
We will be trading the ADP NFP Employment Release. Since ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data, it is undoubtedly a very high impact release. However, about 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -74K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10. Read More...
10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.1 Previous 53.6
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 56.5 SELL 51.0
We’ll be looking to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI once again today and our tradable deviation for a safe trade is 2.5 points either way. In the event we get a better than expected release, this could once again fuel the recent bullish rally of USD; however, if the release is negative, below or close to the medium 50 level, we could see some relieve and consolidation of the greenback… Since this is a leading indicator, investors pay more attention to this release for signs of market direction this month.
This is a preview of US ISM Manufacturing PMI 01/04/10. Read More...
FOMC is going to release its short-term interest rate decision for the last time in 2009 and it is widely expected by analysts that FOMC will keep current rates unchanged until 2010. As FOMC rarely make any changes to the key interest rate at the end of the year, there is really no expectation for a surprise change. As far as FOMC officials and chairman Bernanke are concerned, they have stated on more than one occassion that FOMC will not raise interest rate until the latter part of 2010…
This is a preview of FOMC Federal Fund Rate Decision & Statement 12/16/09. Read More...
We’ll be looking to trade Core CPI release and we are going to look for a surprise factor of 0.2%; if the release number (core) increases to a 0.3% then we will BUY of USD/JPY. If the CPI number decreases to -0.1% or less, we’ll SELL USD/JPY. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to to exaggerate, therefore if either of our tradable releases is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips. If you remember what I wrote last time, this is exactly the same consensus expectation as the market is looking at a low yet steady growth in U.S. Inflation for quite some time now…
This is a preview of US Core CPI m/m 12/16/09. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.2% 8:30am (NY Time) US Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 1.4% ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF (CORE) BUY 1.1% SELL -0.1%
We will be trading Retail Sales release out of U.S. today. We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) scheduled to be released at exactly 8:30am, and it is important that there is no conflict with these numbers or this will be an automatic no trade. The Core release is usually more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components; the headline Retail Sales should be in the same direction as of the Core reading.
This is a preview of US Core Retail Sales m/m 12/11/09. Read More...
We will be trading the NFP release number today, which is expected at -120K with a previous release of -190K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the release consensus expectation slightly, but with postive benchmark revisions of last 3 months’ NPF releases, we actually got about +70K of deviation… However, these positive releases from past revisions didn’t really matter to traders as the Unemployment Rate broke above the 10.2%, which brought an immediate risk aversion sentiment as we saw stronger JPY across the board…
This is a preview of US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
10:00am NY Time US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.6 Previous 50.6
ACTION: BUY 54.0 SELL 49.0 USD/JPY
Today we’ll tradethe ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better known as the Services PMI, which is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector, as many investors look at this release for directional references on the near-term future of the economy. With the current analyst’s expectation at above the 50 level or 51.6, in the event that 54.0 is reached, we could see risk appetite returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if the opposite is true, or 49.0 figure is released, expect to see stronger JPY and possible stronger USD from risk aversion flows.
This is a preview of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 12/03/09. Read More...
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -149K Previous -203K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -80K SELL -230K
Our focus today will be on the ADP Employment Release. ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general risk sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -149K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
This is a preview of US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09. Read More...
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