We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 150K Previous 120K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
ACTION: 220K SELL EURUSD / 80K BUY EURUSD
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) today. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
Here´s the forecast:
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 54.5 Previous 53.9
ACTION: 57.0 SELL EURUSD/ 52.0 BUY EURUSD
Trade Plan
We´ll be looking for around 2.5 points of deviation for this trade. If a 57.0 or better number is released, we could see some USD strength, thererefore SELL EURUSD. If the opposite is true, or 52.0 figure is released, expect to see weaker USD in the short term, therefore we should BUY EURUSD.
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.5%
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 4th quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.7% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
US New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we´re likely to see an inline release today.
Here is the forecast:
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 320 Previous 315K
ACTION: 390K SELL EURUSD / 250 SELL USDJPY
The Trade Plan
We´ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthen USD aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USDJPY. A stronger number could provide temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD therefore we should look to SELL EURUSD.
Today’s FOMC Meeting will probably not surprise the market as much, considering that the Fed has kept rates at around 0.25% for the past three years, injected two rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE1 and QE2) into the economy, plus Operation Twist by swapping shorter-term bonds with longer ones, there aren’t much left for the Fed to do except for wait and see…
US Existing Home Sales is expected to rise slightly from the previous month as current foreclosure rate is still remaining resiliently high. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.65M Previous 4.42M
ACTION: USDCHF BUY 5.10M / USDJPY SELL 4.20M
The Trade Plan
Because the Housing sector is one of the most focused news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: 0.3% BUY USDCHF / -0.1% SELL USDJPY
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Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 16 ~ 20, 2012
The news on Friday was that S&P finally downgraded a number of euro zone member nations, including France's sovereign ratingby ... (2516)
Upcoming Forex News Calendar For January 9 ~ 13, 2012 The first real trading week for the new year in markets started with investors focused on Europe. US and European markets were ... (2277) Forex News Trading US Advanced GDP 01/27/12 Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2175)
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