Forex News Trading and Currency Training Analysis Video
ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) and it is similar to the UK Manufacturing PMI as this release is targeting the Manufacturing sector. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am NY Time US ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 53.2 Previous 55.5
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 56.0 SELL 50.5 USDJPY
ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing it’s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm Payroll). This is high impact release and it’s followed by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday’s NFP official release. Here’s the forecast:
8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 20K Previous 42K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 70K SELL -30K
Here’s the forecast for U.S. Prelim. GDP:
8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP q/q Forecast 1.5% Previous 2.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.8% SELL 1.2%
The Trade Plan
Our main focus tomorrow will be on the second of three quarterly (Q2) release of U.S. GDP number (Prelim). We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 1.5%. Therefore if we get a 1.8% on the Prelim 2nd quarterly GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 1.2% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
U.S. New Home Sales usually follows the trend of Existing Home Sales, therefore we are likely to see a worse than expected figure. Here is the forecast:
10:00am NY Time New Home Sales Forecast 333K Previous 330K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 400K SELL 260K
The Trade Plan
We’ll trade this release using a deviation of 70K; if the release is lower, it would strengthened risk aversion sentiment and we should look to SELL USD/JPY; if the number is higher, it could provide a temporary support for the pair and we may see a slight rally in USD/JPY.
US Existing Home Sales is expected to decline from previous month as current market situation is adding more pressure to the housing sector. Here’s forecast:
Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.70M Previous 5.37M
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 5.10M SELL 4.30M
The Trade Plan
Because the Housing sector is one of the most important news events out of the US, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of the nation, and of the world, on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
We’ll be getting the Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out of U.S. today, as high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales makes up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (economy)… Here’s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3%
We’ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release today. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. At the same time, we also have the US Core Retail Sales, which is another strong high impact release that could change the short term market trend; therefore please also read my analysis on that release… Here’s the forecast for the CPI:
Bank of Canada (BOC) will once again meet for their Overnight Rate (Interest Rate) and the decision will be announced today at 9:00am sharp. Along with the rate decision, BOC Carney will also announce … [Read More...]
7:00am (NY Time) CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.1% ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6% We will be trading Canadian Core CPI release today and our … [Read More...]
8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.3% ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.3% Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have … [Read More...]
Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.0% Previous 0.3% Action: BUY USD/CAD (-0.3%) SELL USD/CAD (+0.3%) CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices … [Read More...]
I get asked a lot about my Currency Strength Meter and some of the best ways to use it. I made a short video (26 minutes) covering the 7 ways that I use my meter and I hope it will spark a new idea … [Read More...]
8:30am (NY Time) EU Trichet Press Conference ACTION: EUR/USD BUY (Hawkish) SELL (Dovish) Trichet will deliver a statement along with a Long and Boring Q&A session after. This press … [Read More...]
Here's again for this week's upcoming news releases and as usual, I'll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the high impact tradable releases listed below: 1. Mon August 2, … [Read More...]
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