RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 03/10/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 9, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news media companies.  As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement and hawkish tone during previous RBNZ rate statements from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.

New Zealand RBNZ Official Cash Rate 01/27/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 26, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% in this meeting, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed from different news companies.  As a matter of fact, aside from the bullish statement during last RBNZ rate decision from Governor Bollard, there seems to be no other fundamental reasons supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future.

New Zealand Retail Sales 01/20/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 19, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | 2 Comments to Read

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6%  Previous 0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.2%      SELL 0.0%

Today we’ll trade the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference (or deviation) of at least 0.6% from the Forecasted number, therefore a positive 1.2% (or better) will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a 0.0% (or worse) will be a bearish signal for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.

New Zealand CPI q/q 01/19/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 18, 2010 under Forex News Trade, NZD CPI q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q    Forecast 0.0%   Previous 1.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD       BUY 1.1%      SELL 0.5% 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.0% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower -0.3%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.

With recent RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) unexpected hawkish statement by Governor Bollard, market is widely expecting RBNZ to hike interest rate mid this year, following its neighbor Australia as both economies are closely correlated.  As this release will undoubtedly push that speculation to a new level since it would either give RBNZ Governor Bollard justification to hike rates, or turn speculation of an early rate hike off.  

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision (Interest Rate) 12/09/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 8, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

3:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at the current level of 2.50% once again during today’s rate decision, as unanimously agreed by all economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, there seems to be no fundamental reason supporting a rate hike for NZD in the near future, as the current inflationary target for NZD remains below the magical 2.0% level until perhaps 2011…

New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 11/11/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 10, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

4:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.5%  Previous 1.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.1%      SELL -0.1%

today we’ll focus on the Retail Sales release out of New Zealand… Retail Sales release is the measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, as it reflects the strength of the economy and the strength of consumer spending. We’ll be looking for a difference of at least 0.6% from the Forecast, therefore a positive 1.1% will be somewhat bullish signal for NZD and a -0.1% will be a negative for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal, provided that the market shows initial confirmation in the direction of the release first, coupled with a decent retracement for proper risk to reward ratio, then we’ll make our entry.

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 10/28/09

Posted by Henry Liu on October 27, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

4:00pm (NY Time)  RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%     SELL Unchanged

RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged at the current rate of 2.50%, as unanimously agreed by 11 economists surveyed, according to Bloomberg.  As a matter of fact, New Zealand’s economic outlook is still bleak, although NZD has appreciated over 32% in the past 6 months benefited from the surge in risk appetite  sentiment, but sentiment alone will not make RBNZ hike rates…

Here are some of the facts worth considering, NZ’s Prime Minister John Key spoke today on the high rate of exchange of Kiwi offsetting any inflationary concerns, and if RBNZ hikes rates in 2009, he would be “very surprised”…

New Zealand CPI q/q 10/14/09

Posted by Henry Liu on October 13, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD CPI q/q, New Zealand | Read the First Comment

5:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q    Forecast 0.8%   Previous 0.6%
ACTION: NZD/USD       BUY 1.1%      SELL 0.5% 

Our focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.8% by 0.3%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower than 0.5%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down.

New Zealand Retail Sales m/m 10/12/09

Posted by Henry Liu on October 11, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

5:45pm (NY Time)       NZ Retail Sales Forecast 0.6%  Previous -0.5%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 1.2%      SELL -0.1%

NZ GDP q/q (Gross Domestic Product) 09/22/09

Posted by Henry Liu on September 21, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD GDP q/q, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

6:45pm (NY Time) NZ GDP q/q   Forecast -0.2%  Previous -1.0%
ACTION: NZD/USD         BUY 0.1%            SELL -0.5%

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision 09/09/09

Posted by Henry Liu on September 8, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

5:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision   Forecast 2.50%    Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZD/USD        BUY 2.75%         SELL 2.25%

RBNZ has been keeping its rate on hold for 2 rate decisions in a row as the last cut was back in April this year from 3.00% down to 2.50%.  The fundamental outlook for NZ remains bleak as during the last rate decision Governor Bollard expressed a concern that rates could move lower. 

What I would be looking for is a surprise rate cut decision or at least a cautionary tone over the future recovery as I don’t think RBNZ is at a position to be hiking rates;  therefore I can almost be sure this release would be a somewhat bearish for NZD.

NZ Retail Sales m/m 08/13/09

Posted by Henry Liu on August 12, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Retail Sales, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

6:45pm (NY Time)  NZ Retail Sales Forecast -0.3%  Previous -0.1%
ACTION: NZD/USD      BUY 0.3%      SELL -1.0%

This is measurement of consumer spending in the retail sector, we’ll be looking for a deviation of at least 0.6% from the forecast number, therefore a positive 0.3% will be bullish signal for NZD, or a -0.1% will be a negative signal for NZD.  We’ll look for entries after the release in the direction of the signal.

DEFINITION

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision and Statement 07/29/09

Posted by Henry Liu on July 28, 2009 under Forex News Trade, NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | 10 Comments to Read

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be rendering its Interest Rate Decision on the current rate of 2.50%.  Analysts consensus is for an unchanged verdict at 2.50% as the current market condition and New Zealand’s economic outlook don’t justify further rate cutting or hiking at this present moment.  However, it is possible we might see some speculative market movement prior to this release, as the accompanied statement may disclose future monetary policy direction and surprise the market.

NZD RBNZ Rate Retracement Trade – 06/10/09

Posted by Henry Liu on June 10, 2009 under NZD Interest Rate, New Zealand | Be the First to Comment

 

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