UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 03/04/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 3, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep both their official rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound (at least for the time being). The important focus as usual today will be the accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one.

UK Services PMI 03/03/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 2, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI     Forecast 55.0     Previous 54.5
ACTION: GBP/USD                        BUY 57.0         SELL 53.0

We’ll be trading the Services PMI figure today out of UK and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 57.0 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 53.0 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.

UK Manufacturing PMI 03/01/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on March 1, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 56.3   Previous 56.7
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 58.3         SELL 54.3

We’ll be looking forward to trade the Manufacturing PMI number from UK  today and it’s forecasted at 56.3; UK Manufacturing PMI’s medium point is at 50, therefore this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).

We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure)  of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of March, market should react to this release with volatility should we get out deviation.  We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if you deviation is hit. 

UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q       Forecast 0.2%     Previous 0.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD          BUY 0.5%         SELL -0.1%

We’ll be focusing on the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…

UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 18, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time)    Forecast -0.5%   Previous 0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 0.1%       SELL -1.1%

We’ll be focusing on the month on month Retail Sales release today from UK; it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.

UK MPC Meeting Minutes 02/17/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 16, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | Be the First to Comment

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) is releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held about two weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the Asset Purchasing Facility program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave both interested rate and APF unchanged and they are undecided on whether or not the APF (quantitative easing program) should expire or extended for the time being.   But without a concrete answer on the APF program, market took that as a bearish message and sold off GBP.

UK CPI y/y 02/16/2010

Posted by Henry Liu on February 15, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | 4 Comments to Read

4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y       Forecast 3.6%     Previous 2.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD              BUY 3.9%       SELL 3.3%

We’ll be focusing on the CPI release out of UK today using a surprise factor (or deviation) of 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 3.9%, which is way over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 3.3% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

BOE Inflation Report 02/10/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 9, 2010 under Currency Trading Tips, Forex News Trade, Great Britain | Be the First to Comment

5:30am NY Time BOE Inflation Report
ACTION: N/A

Bank of England is going to release its quarterly Inflation report on economic growth and projection for the next 24 months.  This report will be release together with a press conference by BOE Governor King along with other members of the MPC.

This quarterly Inflation report usually details BOE’s view over the current economic condition and future monetary policy.  With the recent hawkish rhetoric from various BOE officials over the state of UK economy and a rather disappointing prelim GDP release of just 0.1% on the 4th quarter of 2009, there is a possibility for this report to go either way.  Therefore, we’ll be watching this report and react should the market sentiment lean towards either buy or sell Sterling.

UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 02/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 3, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

UK’s BOE, Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the consensus expectations are to keep current rates at 0.50% and APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound.  The important focus today will be the decision concerning the APF program as it is expected to expire later this month.  If MPC decides to take a “wait and see” stance on the APF, expect to see GBP soaring against other majors as this is a strong message reflecting the recovery of UK’s economy.

UK Services PMI 02/03/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 2, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI     Forecast 56.6     Previous 56.8
ACTION: GBP/USD                        BUY 58.6         SELL 54.6

We will be focusing on the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 58.6 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.

UK Manufacturing PMI 02/01/10

Posted by Henry Liu on February 1, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 54.1   Previous 54.1
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 56.1         SELL 52.1

Our focus for today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK and it’s forecasted at 52.0; UK PMI’s medium point is 50, therefore this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).

We are looking for a tradable deviation of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of February, market should react to this release with volatility should we get out deviation.  We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if you deviation is hit. 

UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/26/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 25, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q       Forecast 0.4%    Previous -0.2%
ACTION: (GBP/USD)                               BUY 0.7%                 SELL 0.0%

We’ll be trading the much anticipated UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q4 2009.  As we know, GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.

UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 21, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 1.3%   Previous -0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.9%       SELL 0.7%

We’ll be looking to tradethe Retail Sales release today from UK, it is a month on month release and it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a hugepart of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.

UK MPC Meeting Minutes 01/20/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 19, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | Be the First to Comment

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held 2 weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the APF program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave both interested rate and APF unchanged but BOE Official Sentance was particularly bullish during the last week and brought about expectations of the end of QE (Quantitative Easing) program.  This action provided an immediate short-term bullish rally for the British Pound as traders and speculators both are expecting a much more bullish stance from BOE.

UK CPI y/y 01/19/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 18, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 2.6%         Previous 1.9%
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 2.9%      SELL 2.3%

We’ll be trading the CPI release out of UK today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is  at 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 2.9%, which is over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 2.3% or remain at the same level as last release, (1.9%) we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even with a small difference of 0.1%, market tend to overreac.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 01/07/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 6, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their interest rate decision today once again for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50% and the APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound,  which are probably no surprise to most traders.  However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement accompanying the rate decision, which may reveal BOE’s future monetary policy.

UK Services PMI 01/06/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 5, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Services PMI     Forecast 56.7     Previous 56.6
ACTION: GBP/USD                        BUY 58.7         SELL 54.7

We will be trading the Services PMI figure today and our minimum deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 58.7 or better, we could see further demand in the GBP and we should BUY GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 54.7 or worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.

Because PMI’s are leading indicators and are likely to set the tone for January 2010 for GBP, especially the  Services PMI’s as from UK since UK’s economy is 72% services based; therefore traders look at this release for early direction in UK’s economy.

UK Manufacturing PMI 01/04/10

Posted by Henry Liu on January 3, 2010 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 52.1   Previous 51.8
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 54.1         SELL 49.8

Our focus for the London Session today will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK, it is expected to be at 52.0 and it is considered as a positive release given the fact that anything above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector, and a slightly better estimate than the previous release of 51.8

UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 16, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Read the First Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 0.5%   Previous 0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.1%       SELL -0.1%

We’ll be focusing on the Retail Sales release today, which is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the low liquidity condition of the market.

UK CPI y/y 12/15/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 14, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 1.8%         Previous 1.5%
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 2.1%      SELL 1.5%

Today we’ll focus on the CPI release once again out of UK and our surprise factor (or deviation) is  at 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 2.1%, which is over BOE’s inflation target, we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 1.5% or remain at the same level as last release, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we should see market overreaction.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

UK MPC Official Bank Rate Decision (BOE Interest Rate) 12/10/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 9, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | Be the First to Comment

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release their finalinterest rate decision today for 2010, and consensus expectations are to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders.  However, the important focus today will be the tentative statement that usually only accompanies BOE rate decision if there is a change, but BOE may just issue a statement regarding their APF program, as it has been much of the focus lately.

UK Services PMI 12/03/09

Posted by Henry Liu on December 2, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time)   UK Service PMI      Forecast 57.1     Previous 56.9
ACTION: GBP/USD                 SELL 55.00     BUY 59.00

Our focus will be on the Services PMI figure today and we’ll look for a minimum deviation of 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 59.0 or better, we could see further demand in the GBP that should justify for LONG trades on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 55.0 or worse release, GBP could weaken or at least show a quick profit taking reaction from the overnight bullish move.

UK Manufacturing PMI m/m 12/01/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 30, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 54.1   Previous 53.7
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 56.0         SELL 52.0

We will be trading the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it is expected to be at 54.0 and it is considered as a positive release given the fact that anything above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector.

UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 24, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK GDP q/q | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q       Forecast -0.3%     Previous -0.4%
ACTION: GBP/USD          BUY 0.0%         SELL -0.6%

We’ll be trading the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”  GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate to curb inflation.

UK Retail Sales m/m 11/19/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 18, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Retail Sales | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales   Forecast 0.6%   Previous 0.0%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 1.2%       SELL -0.1%

Retail Sales is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is obviously good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency whereas a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales usually makes up a substantial part of the GDP, thus the effect of this release could be very profound.

BOE MPC Meeting Minutes 11/18/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 17, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK MPC Vote Minutes | 2 Comments to Read

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Meeting Minutes          Forecast 0-0-9     Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD           N/A

MPC, Monetary Policy Committee, from Bank of England (BOE) will be releasing their meeting minutes over the Rate Decision meeting held 2 weeks ago along with the actual vote count over the rate decision and the vote count over the increase in its APF program.  If you recall, MPC decided leave the interested rate unchanged but surprised the market by only increasing its QE program by 25 Billion Pound against analysts estimate of 50 Billion Pound Increase.  This action provided an immediate short-term rally for the British Pound as traders and speculators both wonder the reasons to this surprisingly strong outlook for the GBP from BOE.

UK CPI y/y 11/17/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 16, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK CPI y/y | 3 Comments to Read

4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y    Forecast 1.4%         Previous 1.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 1.7%      SELL 1.1%

We’ll focus on the CPI release today and our surprise factor (or deviation) is  at 0.3%.  If the yearly Inflation number increases to a surprise of 1.7% then we will BUY of GBP/USD.  If the Inflation number decreases to 1.1% or less, we’ll look to SELL GBP/USD.  Historically, even at a difference of 0.1%, we should see market overreaction.  If our deviation is hit, there is a probability of over 80% that the market will move 50 pips within the next 30 minutes.

UK BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 11/05/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 4, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Interest Rate | 4 Comments to Read

7:00am (NY Time) UK Offcial Bank Rate Decision  Forecast 0.50%   Previous 0.50%
ACTION: GBP/USD      N/A

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to release its interest rate decision once again today, and consensus expectation is to keep rates at 0.50%, which is no surprise to most traders.  However, the important focus today will be the APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, or Quantitative Easing, or their Stimulus Program) program, which is expected by analysts to be increased by a minimum of 25 billion Pound to a maximum of 75 billion Pound…

UK Services PMI 11/04/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 3, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Services PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time)   UK Service PMI      Forecast 55.4     Previous 55.3
ACTION: GBP/USD                 SELL 53.40     BUY 57.40

We’ll be trading the Services PMI figure today and we’ll look for a minimum surprise factor of 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at least 57.40 or better, we could see support in the GBP and a possible LONG trade for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY could be justified.  If we get a 54.4 or worse release, GBP could weaken significantly ahead of the BOE rate decision on Thursday, thus exaggerating the effect of this release.

UK Manufacturing PMI 11/02/09

Posted by Henry Liu on November 2, 2009 under Forex News Trade, Great Britain, UK Manufacturing PMI | Be the First to Comment

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 50.1   Previous 49.5
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 52.1         SELL 48.00

Our focus will be on the Manufacturing PMI number from UK today, it is expected to be just above 50, which is considered as the medium point.

We are looking for a difference or deviation of 2.0, and remember that this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the upcoming trend of this currency for the weeks to come, or at least for this month. If our BUY/SELL numbers are hit, we can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour.