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Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% / BUY -0.2%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.2% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.
CPI is also known a Inflation and our focus will be on the Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items…
Here´s the forecast:
7:00am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 0.6%
The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of 0.0% or worse to BUY USD/CAD, or a +0.6% or better to SELL USD/CAD.
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 1.0%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.5%, a reading of 0.0% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 1.0% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 15K Previous 2.3k
Unemployment Rate 7.6%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 50K / BUY USDCAD -5K
The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce their rate decision today at 9:00am sharp.
Here´s what analysts expect:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.75% SELL 1.25%
The Trade Plan
Most analyst agree that the BOC will hold rates at 1.00%. I´ll be trading this release with a 0.25% deviation using Spike Trading method. In the event of a surprise hike it´s almost guaranteed that we´ll see strong market movement immediately after the release.
The Canada IVEY PMI will be released today. This release is considered a leading indicator that receives much attention from traders; especially when its released early in the week before the Employment report. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 62.0 Previous 64.1
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 58.0 / SELL 66.0
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.6% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a 0.0% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD, and perhaps set the tone for the rest of the year…
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