We’ll be trading the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 03/04/2010. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will be issuing its Overnight Rate decisions once again today and this meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, making this news event probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last two BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate 03/02/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7%
We’ll be focusing on a possible trade from the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as:
“the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll be looking to trade the Core Retail Sales release and not the headline release today; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.0%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and basically it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of the Headline or Retail Sales release. A better release generally means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
This is a preview of Canada Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010. Read More...
We will be focusing on the Core CPI release from Canada and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
USD/CAD has been consolidating over recent gains and it is diverging from other major currencies versus the USD. As most European currencies are trading at their support levels against USD, CAD has been showing exceptional strength, but it is my opinion that USD may gain significantly against CAD if we get anything less than an upward surprise in this release. If we were to look at correlation historically, we could expect an upward breakout on the USD/CAD pair soon following the collapse of both EUR/USD and GBP/USD recently.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 02/18/2010. Read More...
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian Employment Change report today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K as usual, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD (or even EUR/CAD); on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Change 02/05/10. Read More...
We’ll be focusing once again on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. And as with PMIs, they are all considered as leading indicators with the medium point at 50, therefore a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 02/04/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.0% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking at the Canadian GDP release (m/m) today, and GDP is defined (by wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event… with that being said however, we’ll also have the USD quarterly advanced GDP release at the same time… The whole world will be focused on that release, therefore I’d definitely look at the US release first before jumping in any trades…
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 01/29/10. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% SELL 0.9%
We’ll be focusing on Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.3% with a previous release at 0.2%. Core Retail Sales release is a month on month release, and it’s a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy as the automotive component could fluctuate per season.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the first time in 2010, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
This is what I wrote for the last BOC rate decision, I think the situation still remains mostly unchanged:
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision 01/19/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 50K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 01/08/10. Read More...
We’ll be trading the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion in the economy whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI m/m 01/07/10. Read More...
We will be trading the Core CPI release from Canada and our deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
USD/CAD has been consolidating over recent gains and with U.S. economic outlook improving significantly, my longer term view on the USD/CAD pair is actually bullish and we should see 1.1000 as soon as early 2010. Therefore, unless we do get a stronger CPI release, the general direction will remain unchanged for USD/CAD, which is LONG.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 12/17/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) will renders its Overnight Rate decisions for the last time in 2009, and today’s meeting will be watched by traders and speculators since interest rate policy serves as a tool to curb inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event for the day.
Although there are no official statements or overwhelming market sentiment pointing to a possible hike, as BOC Governor Mark Carney stated in his last rate statement that BOC will maintain rates at low level until the end of first quarter 2010, but with the recent employment changes and GDP release from Canada, speculations of a possible hike or at least acceleration of their monetary policy might tilt the sentiment to a stronger CAD prior to the release…
This is a preview of BOC Overnight Rate Decision (Interest Rate Decision) 12/08/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 15K Previous -43.2K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 45K BUY -15K
We’ll focus on the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be the first of two high impact news releases for this Friday, with NFP being the second event scheduled just 90 minutes later. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 45K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -15K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 12/04/09. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.1% SELL 0.7%
Today we’ll be trading the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” As GDP is basically the measurement of the “economy” as a whole and it certainly has a strong impact on the cash rate of the CAD, it’ll be a highly anticipated news event.
This is a preview of Canada GDP m/m 11/30/09. Read More...
8:30am NY Time Canada Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 1.0%
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada and not the headline release; the core release as a forecast expectation of 0.4% with a previous release at 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release means more consumer spending, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a far more accurate look of the actual economy.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 11/23/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Core CPI release from Canada and the tradable deviation for this release based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable figures of 0.3% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.3% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
USD/CAD has been trading very strong lately but it has found support at around the 1.0420 with the USD. If we get a worse than expected release, an obvious rebound from this level is expected and we could see the 1.0600 to 1.0700 providing some support; if the opposite is true, then expect 1.0400 to be taken out and USD/CAD could be on the way to 1.0200 as the previous support lies.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 11/18/09. Read More...
7:00am NY Time CA Employment Changes Forecast 10K Previous 30.6K
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 40K BUY -20K
Today’s high impact news event aside from the NFP will be the Canadian Employment Changes event, which is going to be our focus today. We are looking for a surprise factor (trigger, deviation) of 30K, therefore if we get a positive 40K of release, we’ll look to SELL USD/CAD; on the other hand, if we get a -20K of release, we’ll look to BUY the USD/CAD pair. With NFP coming up in about 90 minutes we have to take smaller profit target and plan our exits preferrably before the actual NFP release.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes 11/06/09. Read More...
8:30am (NY Time) CA GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.4% BUY -0.2%
We’ll be focusing on the Canadian GDP month on month release, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP has a strong effect on the cash rate of the CAD, as better economy affects BOC’s rate outlook and future monetary policy.
This is a preview of Canada GDP (Gross Domestic Product) m/m 10/30/09. Read More...
BOC releases a quarterly Monetary Policy Report providing direction over its monetary policy and future interest rate decisions. This report is probably not tradable unless BOC surprises the market by deviating from its recent statement during the interest rate decision just a week ago.
However, in the event BOC offers new insight into their future monetary policy and points to the possibility of hiking interest rate sooner than June of 2010, then we could see some buying of the CAD; if BOC Report maintain the same rhetoric as before, then not much market reaction could be expect… as a matter of fact, we might even see CAD getting weaker against the USD.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Monetary Policy Report 10/22/09. Read More...
We’ll trade the Core Retail Sales release from Canada, not the headline release, which has a consensus expectation of 0.6% instead of the 0.5%. Core Retail Sales release is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A better release on the Retail sales number means more consumption, which leads to better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look of the actual economy.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 10/22/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) renders its Overnight Rate decisions 8 times a year and today’s meeting will be widely watched by traders and speculators alike. Since interest rate policy serves as a tool to fight inflation and maintain price stability, this news event is probably the most important event from Canada for currency traders.
Although there are no official statements pointing to a surprise cut or hike, as BOC Governor Mark Carney stated in his last rate statement that BOC will maintain rates at low level until the end of first quarter 2010, traders are anxious to see if BOC follows suit after RBA’s surprise rate hike last week.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision 10/20/09. Read More...
Our tradable deviation for the Canadian Core CPI based on historical track record is 0.3%, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.1% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
Canadian Dollar has been trading very strong lately but it has found support at around the 1.0200 with the USD. If we get a worse than expected release, an obvious rebound from this level is expected and we could see the 1.0400 to 1.0500 providing some resistance; if the opposite is true, then expect 1.0200 to be taken out and USD/CAD could be on the way to parity shortly.
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 10/16/09. Read More...
We will focus on the Canadian Employment Changes today, which is expected at +5.0K this month. If we get a surprise release of of at least 25K, making it at +30k or -20K, we can conservatively expect the market to move 40 pips within the hour, based on a historical probability of about 80% of chance.
Even if our BUY/SELL figure is hit, it is still important to keep an eye on the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 8.8%. If it does not conflict with the Employment Release, then we’ll follow our trade plan, and in the event of a conflict, we will stay out of the market.
This is a preview of Canada Employment Changes m/m 10/09/09. Read More...
We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey. As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of above 50 would be considered as expansion whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.
This is a preview of Canada IVEY PMI 10/06/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Core Retail Sales release, which is a measurement of the activities at the retail level of Canada, excluding most volatile Automobile Sales Components, which makes up about 25% of Retail Sales headline number. A higher Retail sales number means better economy, thus better for its currency. And of course the CORE reading provides a more accurate look at the retail spending of the economy.
This is a preview of Canada Core Retail Sales m/m 09/22/09. Read More...
The safe deviation for Canada Core CPI based on historical data is a minimum of 0.3% of deviation, therefore in order to trade this release successfully I’ll be looking for tradable releases of 0.4% or better to SELL USD/CAD or a -0.2% or worse to BUY USD/CAD.
Canadian Dollar has been trading very strong lately and the USD/CAD is currently around the 1.0700 level. As the low of August 2009 is at 1.0620 area, which may provide a medium support for the pair, I’ll be looking for a bounce from there; at break of which, I’ll be looking for the next area of support at 1.0400…
This is a preview of Canada Core CPI m/m 09/17/09. Read More...
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25%
ACTION: USD/CAD Depend on Market Condition
BOC (Bank of Canada) council members meet 8 times a year and discuss where to set their current Interest rate. Since interest rate is directly related to inflation, it is probably THE MOST HIGH IMPACT news for traders who trade CAD crosses. But since there are absolutely no expectation for a surprise cut or hike release, market will most likely concentrate on the accompanied statement by BOC Governor.
This is a preview of Canada BOC Overnight Rate Decision 09/10/09. Read More...
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