The Canada IVEY PMI will be released today. This release is considered a leading indicator that receives much attention from traders; especially when its released early in the week before the Employment report. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 58.5 Previous 63.5
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 55.0 / SELL 61.5
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 24K Previous 17.5k
Unemployment Rate 7.5%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 50K / BUY USDCAD -5K
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
The Trade Plan
Let´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the general market, a strong surprise in this GDP number may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD, and perhaps set the tone for the rest of the year…
Retail Sales is usually a very tradable release as traders draw direct correlation between retail activities with economic health.
Here´s Forecast:
8:30am Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.7%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.3% / SELL 0.7%
The Trade Plan
I´m going to be looking for a deviation around 0.4 ~ 0.5% for this news. Since the forecast is at 0.4%, a reading of -0.3% would be negative for the CAD and we´ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD; however, if the opposite is true, or a 0.7% (or better) of actual release, I´ll be looking to SELL USD/CAD.
CPI is also known a Inflation and our focus will be on the Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items…
Here´s the forecast:
7:00am CA Core CPI m/m Forecast -0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.4% / SELL 0.2%
The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of -0.4% or worse to BUY USD/CAD, or a +0.2% or better to SELL USD/CAD.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) will announce their rate decision today at 9:00am sharp.
Here´s what analysts expect:
9:00am (NY Time) CA BOC Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY 0.75% SELL 1.25%
The Trade Plan
Most analyst agree that the BOC will hold rates at 1.00%. I´ll be trading this release with a 0.25% deviation using Spike Trading method. In the event of a surprise hike it´s almost guaranteed that we´ll see strong market movement immediately after the release.
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 18K Previous -18.6K
Unemployment Rate 7.4%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 45K / BUY USDCAD -10K
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 7:00am sharp today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (18K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 45K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL USD/CAD; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
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8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/q
Forecast 3.0% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: SELL ... (2175)
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