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Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter, and it is scheduled about 65 days after the quarter ends. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD.
Here is the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.7% Previous 1.0%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.4%
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep its borrowing costs at 4.25%, as per general market consensus, after last meeting’s surprise decision of keeping the rates at the same level…
Here´s the forecast for this news release:
10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.25% Previous 4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00%
The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will stay out of the market as today’s decision is based on unanimous consensus… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a strong reaction in the market to SELL the AUD as the market will be surprised.
We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 11.0K Previous -29.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 35.0K SELL -15.0K
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to cut the borrowing costs to 4.00%, as per general market consensus…
Here´s the forecast for this news release:
10:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.00% Previous 4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00% / BUY 4.25%
The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD as today’s decision is not based on unanimous consensus… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a possibility to SELL as the market will be equally surprised.
Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be to look for opportunities for entry if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
8:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:
7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 10.0K Previous -6.3K
AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.3%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 35.0K SELL -15.0K
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