We’ll be focusing on the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 03/10/2010. Read More...
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity from the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by analysts expectation from Bloomberg to be at 0.9%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number or flat (0.0%) release.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 03/02/2010. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to release its official cash rate decision today and Majority of economists expected a pause in today’s rate decision following the surprise pause last rate decision.
There are some speculation that RBA may resume its rate tightening policy, although the majority still feels that an unchanged verdict is more likely as the economy has not changed much since last rate decision back in Feb. 1, 2010. However, this may give us a possible pre-buying sentiment as speculators may be looking to buy AUD with hopes for a possible surprise… should RBA leave rates unchanged, we could see an immediate “buy on rumor and sell on news” reaction as the market sell off AUD immediately minutes after the release.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate decision 03/01/2010. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.8% Previous -0.7%
ACTION: BUY 1.4% SELL 0.2% AUD/USD
We’ll be looking for a possible again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 1.0%. If we get a 1.6% or 0.4%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
However, with the RBA rate decision coming in just 3 hours, we need to make sure that we only enter the market if and when we get our deviation.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 03/01/2010. Read More...
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Change 02/10/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.3% Previous 1.4%
ACTION: BUY 0.9% SELL -0.3% AUD/USD
We’ll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales 02/03/10. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 4.00% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. Majority of economists expected a pause in today’s rate decision back in December of 2009, and many of them had apparently jumped ship and are now on the side of a rate hike… As a matter of fact, there are rumors floating of a possible hike of 1/2 percent instead of the 1/4 percent forecast-ed…
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 02/01/10. Read More...
We’ll be lookign to trade the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As reflected in recent RBA rate statements, Australia is facing rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates last few rate decisions, and with a surprise better than expected release, we could have justification for further rate hike.
This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q 01/26/10. Read More...
We’ll be looking forward to trade the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is very similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australian Employment Change m/m 01/13/10. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
We will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4% and we will focus on the Retail Sales release instead of the Trade Balance, but of course we will only trade if there is no conflict between both releases, or it is probably best to sit out as the market may be extremely difficult to read. If we get a 1.0% or -02%, we’d get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australian Retail Sales m/m 01/06/10. Read More...
7:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.6%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
We’ll be focusing on the quarterly GDP release today out of Australia, which is expected by a wide range of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg to be at 0.4%. As Australia’s GDP number has maintained on the positive side for the last couple of quarters, this release number will probably not have a trend changing impact on the AUD unless it’s a negative number.
We’ll be looking for a surprise factor of 0.3%, therefore if we get 0.7% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.1% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD test the 0.9000 figure and possibly breakout below.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 12/15/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the Australian Employment Changes release today as this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report (and possibly trend changing) as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09. Read More...
7:30pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.2%
ACTION: BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2% AUD/USD
Our focus today will be to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.4%. Therefore, if we get a 1.0% or -021%, we’d have our trigger to get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release, with a high probability of seeing the market moving over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 12/02/09. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hike its official cash rate once again to 3.75% as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. However, this is going to be the first time RBA has hiked rates 3 times consecutively in a row. Therefore, there is some expectation that RBA may not hike rate this time, but may resume its rate tightening cycle in 2010.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/30/09 (Interest Rate Decision). Read More...
As we know this news release is equivalent to US Nonfarm Payroll changes but for Australia, and it is a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy, which affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09. Read More...
The plan for this release is to look for a deviation of 0.6% from the forecast release of 0.5%. Therefore, if we get a 1.1% or -0.1%, we’d have our trigger to get in either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release, with a high probability of seeing the market moving over 50 pips in the next 2 hours.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 11/03/09. Read More...
RBA started the rate hike cycle during last rate decision and now analysts believe RBA will likely to hike rates by another 25 basis point to 3.50% today. Should RBA hike rates by 50 basis point instead of 25, we should see AUD/USD break upwards and possibly retest some resistance areas; however, if RBA decides to keep rates unchanged at the current level, we could see AUD/USD drop below the 0.8800 level.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/02/09. Read More...
Our focus will be on the quarterly CPI release out of Australia. As stated in recent RBA announcements, Australia is facing possible rise in inflation, and this number could surprise to the upside. RBA hiked rates a few weeks ago and surprised the market, this will be the justification for that rate hike. Therefore, If we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop as traders will be confused over RBA’s decision, and we should expect market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the trade.
This is a preview of Australia CPI q/q 10/27/09. Read More...
RBA(Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to release its Meeting Minutes for the rate decision 2 weeks ago; and if you remember, it was a surprise to the currency market as a whole as RBA hiked it’s Cash Rate by 25 basis points, from 3.00% to 3.25%. As with most analysts, I didn’t expect RBA to hike rates until 2010, and I was genuinely surprised by this decision, and of course, market responded with a frenzied demand for AUD and pushed AUD/USD pair to new 2009 highs.
This is a preview of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 10/19/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the health of the economy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we would SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its official cash rate unchanged once again at 3.00%, as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. However, due to the recent optimism in the market and signs of early recovery, RBA is considered as the the next logical central bank to hike interest rate out of G8 countries.
This is a preview of RBA Cash Rate Decision 10/05/09. Read More...
The simple plan for today’s Retail Sales is that if we get a better than the forecast figure of 0.6%, we would BUY AUD/USD; and if we get worse than the forecast figure, somewhere in the vicinity of -0.1% or worse, we will SELL AUD/USD.
The Australian Dollar has been untouchable lately due to the strong risk appetite sentiment that drives the market, and it is likely to show further strength if we get a better than expected release. However, with USD consolidating with its recent losses, we could see a short window of weakness for the AUD as it also consolidate its recent gains. The long term perception for AUD/USD is still above the 0.9000 level in the next 3 ~ 6 months, in my humble opinion.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/29/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia. It is considered as a high impact report. If the release is better, which will be good for AUD, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the release is worse, which will be bad for AUD, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 10K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -38K or worse to be taking the trade safely. According to past history, if we do get our tradable releases, market has 80% of probability to move 40+ pips in the direction of our release.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09. Read More...
If we get better release numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted at 0.6%, it would be good for the AUD/USD and provide temporary support, we would BUY AUD/USD. If we get worse release numbers, somewhere in the -0.1% or worse, we will SELL AUD/USD.
This is a preview of Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/08/09. Read More...
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 0.8% SELL 0.3%
We’ll be trading the quarterly GDP number out of Australia, which is expected to be the second quarterly positive release as the consensus expectation is at 0.6%. As a technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, a two consecutive quarters release of positive GDP certainly implies recovery. This should add to the already highly demanded AUD and boost risk appetite sentiment should we get a 0.8% release.
This is a preview of Australia GDP q/q 09/01/09. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its official cash rate unchanged at 3.00% as expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. As a matter of fact, due to the recent optimism in the market and signs of early recovery, the next logical move for RBA in its rate policy is likely to be hiking rates rather than cutting rates.
This is a preview of RBA Interest Rate Decision 09/01/09. Read More...
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to testify in front of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Sydney on the RBA Annual Report. Most likely we’ll see a repeat of recent rhetoric and some Q&A session taking place. But since Stevens is the head of RBA, anything he says have the potential to move the market. It is important for Forex Traders to pay attention to these speeches, testimonies as we can often get a hint of future monetary policy direction, which is the REAL driver of currency market.
This is a preview of RBA Stevens Testify 08/13/09. Read More...
RBA issues a statement on its Monetary Policy about 4 times a year. As statement on RBA’s website “… These Statements assess current economic conditions and the prospects for inflation and output growth. These Statements have replaced the Semi-Annual Statements on Monetary Policy and the reports on the Economy and Financial Markets which were previously published by the Bank.”
Since we are likely to get hints of future policy direction, whether a credit hiking cycle is coming next quarter or at the beginning of the 2010, or should we expect a prolonged recession and further contraction in the economy… these statements will surely move the market.
This is a preview of RBA Monetary Policy Statement 08/06/09. Read More...
This news release is similar to US. Non-Farm payroll. It is a high impact report. If the number is better, which is good for Audi, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the number is worse, which is bad for Audi, we would SELL AUD/USD.
In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 6K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -40K or worse to be taking the trade safely.
This is a preview of Australia Employment Changes m/m 08/05/09. Read More...
Reserve Bank of Australia will release its interest rate decision today. Almost 100% of analysts surveyed by bloomberg agree that RBA will keep this rate decision at unchanged verdict, as there are no expectations of further rate cuts at this current moment.
RBA governor will also release a statement along with the rate decision, and the market may react with heavy volatility if his statement is biased toward recovery or prolonged recession. Prior to the rate decision market has been trading AUD/USD to as high as 0.8460 area, the top of the range of AUD/USD’s 320+ pips of bullish run during the last 4 calendar days.
This is a preview of RBA Interest Rate Decision 08/04/09. Read More...
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