8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -188K Previous -254K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY -120K SELL -258K
ADP is the largest private payroll processing providers in the U.S., and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers, usually about 2 days before the actual NFP, based on it’s proprietary data. About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that were totally off. This is an excellent indicator for the general direction of the market and sometimes serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -188K, we should look to trade in the direction of the surprise.
As I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem jumping into the market.
This will undoubtedly change market perception on Friday’s NFP release, therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
Related posts:
- US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
- US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change 09/02/09
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- Forex Plan For US ADP NFP Employment 09/01/10
- US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
- US ADP NFP Changes 09/30/09
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 01/05/11
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 02/02/11
- Forex Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment Change 08/03/11
