Hi everyone,
I just wanted to say that with today’s unexpected turn of events from the U.S. GDP release, market has turned around from last 3 days of risk aversion concerns to an all out risk appetite and boosted gains of every major currency against the USD… This created a strong reversal on the GBP as it blew through several resistance points… and boy, did I ever hear about it from my subscribers! I spent almost half-day just replying emails to traders who just totally ignored the US GDP release and went short on Sterling. I got hate mails, critiques, and tons of emails from concerned subscribers, which I must say that I’m always happy to hear from…
The main point is to always consider the trade in the context of the current market condition. As I have said time and time again in my videos, if you don’t consider the market condition prior to the trade, you could end up with a loss on your hands; and in the face of a strong risk appetite sentiment event, which I have called it in my daily analysis yesterday, and I quote:
“Of course the real confirmation will be at the actual release time,
as the market will determine the actual effect of this news… what
I’d do is sit back and watch how the market reacts first, then get
in a few minutes after; if the release has momentum to push through,
a few minutes won’t really matter, but the safety of the late entry
is priceless…”
There is no other way of interpreting this, except to wait and see, then trade. If you’ve done that, there is no way you’d SELL GBP after the news, or at least you’d have gotten in at the top and picked up some pips on retracement, which is exactly what I did in the traderoom, banked more than 25 pips in 30 minutes…
Because of this exact reason, I’ve really dialed back on sharing my trades… I mean hate mails are fine, but if you listened to my advice and lost money, I feel like crap… And I don’t think I should just give a trade and let traders make their own decisions, since we all have different experience levels… I must also show you how to do it, when to do it, and when NOT to do it…
So I’ve decided to do a Mentoring Program, which will officially open for registration next week. It has a very limited seating because of the personal attention I’m going to give… Once I get enough members (around 100), I’ll close registration and that’s it. And for the next few months it would be 100% of dedication to the members and nothing else…
I’ll be posting the details of the program on Monday of next week in my blog, make sure you grab a spot as soon as possible…
Now talking about Sterling, where do I think it will be next week, whether or not my prediction still holds true… My answer is simple. Nothing changed fundamentally during the last 24 hours in UK’s economy. BOE will have to respond to their own GDP release in about a week, and to avoid looking like idiots, they must do something… That will drive Sterling down, and no matter what is happening now, the higher Sterling is at, the harder it will likely to fall…
But of course, nothing is cast in stone… I cannot be 100% certain that is what going to happen, but I do feel confident it will be the case, so I’d say my targets may be moved upwards some, but my overview for Sterling still remains unchanged.
Henry Liu
Related posts:
- UK BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 11/05/09
- UK MPC Meeting Minutes 08/19/09
- Forex News and Market Trend Wrap-up – Thanksgiving Week, Dubai World, UAE Support, JPY Strength…
- BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 10/08/09
- UK 2nd Quarter Prelim GDP Analysis & Video 07/23/10
- UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 09/10/09
- UK Manufacturing PMI 09/01/09
- UK Manufacturing PMI m/m 12/01/09
- UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 5/25/11
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Hi Henry,
I’m one of those unfortunate newbies that pulled the sell trigger on that day itself and my live account was blown to smithereens. Although it was just a small 45USD micro account, it was a good wake up call to be more careful while entering. So far your newsletter have been very useful in my quest to further understand forex in a fundamental perspective and I thank you for it. I’m looking forward to subscribe to your mentoring program if the price is right as I’m just a student. =)
Regards,
Victor
Hi Henry, It saddens me that some people blame you for their own failures, as if you could possibly be 100% correct on everything all the time. You’re one of the few professionals in this business who consistently delivers high quality information and I really appreciate it. Thanks for everything and I look forward to your new program.
Penny