US Core Retail Sales m/m 10/14/09

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8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales    Forecast 0.3%  Previous 1.1%
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 1.0%        SELL -0.3%

We have both retail sales (healine and core, also know as ex auto) coming out at 8:30am, It is important to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the them in order for us to get into a trade.  Usually the Core release is more accurate reflection of the activities at the retail level because it excludes the volatile Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent governmental incentives, or just seasonal factors; therefore the headline Retail Sales should be different from the Core reading, and hopefully in the same direction.  As the Headline number is expected at -2.0% (E), with a previous release of 2.7%.  Our focus will be not so much to vast difference of the estimated releases of these numbers, but the deviation from their respective estimate to the actual release figures. 

As we could probably expect the market to react based on risk sentiment, therefore I may have to focus on other pairs such as the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY for best results, using USD/JPY as a gauge.  (USD/JPY up for risk appetite and USD/JPU down for risk aversion)

DEFINITION:

“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”

Related posts:

1. US Core Retail Sales m/m 11/16/09
2. US Core Retail Sales m/m 12/11/09
3. US Core Retail Sales m/m 09/15/09
4. US Core CPI m/m 11/18/09
5. US CPI m/m 10/15/09
6. UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09
7. Australia Retail Sales m/m 12/02/09
8. Forex Trade Plan For NZ Retail Sales m/m 07/13/10
9. Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/08/09
10. UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10

Tagged as: Accurate Reflection, Automobile Sales, Automotive Components, Aversion Definition, Consumer Spending, Core Reading, Core Release, Core Retail Sales, currencies market, Eur Jpy, Gauge, Headline Number, Incentives, JPY, Pairs, pips, Previous Release, retail level, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex Auto, risk appetite, risk aversion, Seasonal Factors, sentiment, US, USA, USD, usd jpy, volatile component