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Canada IVEY PMI 10/06/09

by Henry Liu on October 5, 2009

[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/100609-cadpmi/100609-cadpmi.mp4 480 360]

10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI      Forecast 56.6    Previous 55.7
ACTION:  USD/CAD    BUY 53.6    SELL 59.6

We’ll focus on the IVEY PMI from Canada today, it is the equivalent of both ISM PMI’s out of US where purchasing managers of all sectors of the economy participate in this survey.  As with PMIs, they are considered as leading indicators, and a reading of  above 50 would be considered as expansion whereas a reading below 50 would be considered as contraction in the economy.

Our tradable deviation is 3.0, therefore we need to get either a 53.6 or 59.6 (based on 56.6 of expectation) for us to even consider a trade.  For the past few months of so I have skipped this release due to conflict of schedule.  IVEY PMI is usually tradable before the Canadian Employment Changes, and not after or scheduled at the same day.  This should sway public sentiment on Friday if we get a strong reading today.

DEFINITION

“The Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.”

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Ishak October 7, 2009 at 1:57 am

Thank Mr Liu,

I follow your suggestion in email it very good about your prediction,

I would like to know how to get in into the member trade room,
Can you invite me to your trade room

Thank you very much

Ishak

Reply

Henry Liu October 7, 2009 at 7:23 am

Ishak:

Please signup for the Trade Alert or newsletter, I’ll send out instructions to join the traderoom in the next couple of weeks.

Thanks,

Henry

Reply

noobie October 6, 2009 at 8:51 pm

For CAD Ivey PMI – 06/10/09, it should be SELLing USDCAD rite? since the result is better than expected, 66.1?
why u BUYING USDCAD?

Reply

Henry Liu October 7, 2009 at 7:24 am

noobie:

You are right. Please watch the video as I explain why. The bottom line is we are at a very strong support + psyschological level, and to SELL down at this level is equivalent of SELLING LOW and BUYING HIGH, which is a gamble in itself.

Henry

Reply

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