[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/100509-rbarate/100509-rbarate.mp4 480 360]
11:30pm (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 3.00% Previous 3.00%
ACTION: AUD/USD N/A
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its official cash rate unchanged once again at 3.00%, as it is widely expected by the majority economists surveyed by both Bloomberg and Reuters. However, due to the recent optimism in the market and signs of early recovery, RBA is considered as the the next logical central bank to hike interest rate out of G8 countries.
As RBA is accustomed to release a statement along with its rate decision, and the market may react to this statement if it’s biased toward recovery or recession. Prior to the rate decision market may try to price in AUD direction, and after the release we may see a reversal as speculators may very well follow the age old wisdom of “Buy on Rumor and Sell on News”.
I’ll be looking at this release and possible look for areas to sell AUD/USD from the top since AUD has been close to the top of the range as result of the exaggerated demand due to risk appetite sentiment. AUD/USD is probably overvalued compared to the current rate of recovery, therefore we could see some common sense come into play soon, especially with this pair.
Related posts:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision 09/01/09
- RBA Cash Rate decision 03/01/2010
- Trading RBA Cash Rate Decision 06/01/10
- RBA Cash Rate Decision 04/06/10
- RBA Cash Rate Decision 02/01/10
- RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/02/09
- RBA Cash Rate Decision 11/30/09 (Interest Rate Decision)
- RBA Cash Rate Decision Trading Plan 07/06/10
- Forex Trade Plan And Video For RBA Cash Rate Decision 08/03/10
- Forex Strategy For AU RBA Interest Rate Decision 08/01/11
{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }
Thank you.
Appreciate your response and sincerity.
I guess i have to wait for the completion of plans for your DVD and trade room.
Hello Henry,
I posted some questions for you some days ago as regards some of the services listed on the newsprofiteer site as am interested in them but never got any response back.
I have to assume maybe those questions are not meant for this blog.
But never really got any response back on the same enqueries i sent to the customer service on the newsprofiteer site.
Do i have to take it then that all of the services listed on the newsprofiteer site are not functioning as of now?
Which ever way it is, i will appreciate a response, at least if not on the blog, to my email address.
Thanks
Syed:
I apologize as I usually respond to my blog in 24 to 48 hours, sometimes a little longer if weekend. Please see your initial post for answers. Thanks!
Henry
Yes OK thanks Henry. And you are right again the AUS went over the 0.9000 today following the better than expected employment figures.
Cheers Devin.
hi henry,
CAD IVEY PMI on 06/10/2009 came out far better than expected but i’m surprised to see u buying USD/CAD instead of buying CAD i.e selling USD/CAD as instructed in your post. i need some more clarification, please.
Adewole:
Watch the video as I explained it in detail. We were at a strong support, market is likely to bounce despite of the release, so it is very important to not only read the news, but also the market.
Hi Henry
A quick note to thank you for the time and effort you put into yr commentaries – just read yr latest. Its 10pm and you’re still at work. Much appreciated. Stay passionate!
Just a little question about this trade Henry.
When you made your entry to buy the AUS and telling other people to buy, weren’t you at all thinking about waiting for a retracement? I know the numbers came out better than expected and the trade was a great success, but when the entry was made the spike was well on its way or moving rapidly up to where it was up just over 40 pips before you got in.
How were you so confident it was just going to keep going and not retrace back or reverse and not hang on for it to settle down etc before you got in?
Just a question for me so I can better understand the whole mind set thingy.
Thanks Henry
Devin:
A surprise rate hike is not just “another” better than expected release. If you read my book you’d know that the whole fundamental aspect of news trading is hinged upon interest rates. So in the event of a hike where the market isn’t expecting a hike until maybe mid 2010, it creates an instant shockwave to the market. Needless to say, I was pretty confident to see AUD/USD jumping up, and I even told everyone in the room to hold out until 0.8900, and WE WILL SEE 0.9000 soon.
Hope this answers your question.
Henry
Hi Henry,
Thanks for your video.
A question about spreads: when there are news announced usually brokers increase their spread sometimes even to 50 pips depending on the currency traded.
How do you manage that?
Thanks
Clifton
Clifton:
As far as spread widening is concerned, except for the RBA rate decision on Monday, which I jumped in on a spike trade and paid broker widening spread (and still made money), about 95% of my trades were taken AFTER the spreads gone back to normal. To answer your question specifically, I manage to avoid the excessive spread by NOT trading while they have widened, and wait until they return to normal or within acceptable range (maybe 1 ~ 2 pips wider than normal) to take a trade. Usually my trades are taken after 5 minutes of the release, and the widening of the spread usually ends after 3 minutes or less after the release.
Henry
hi henry
u r doing a fantastic job
its really a grt platform for a novice trader to learn
excellent job
keep it up!
Hey Henry
Nice trading, do you have trade room up and running? as it sounded like some sort of trade room thing going on when you were telling people to buy the AUD?
cheers Devin
Devin:
Yes, I have a small member base from another traderoom that I took over, first as a favor but now I have grown attached to them. So I decided to run this traderoom and merge it as soon as mine is up and running. The traderoom I took over is no longer accepting members, as a matter of fact, it has been losing member consistently. I took over to fulfill the promises made by the host of the traderoom since I once recommended it to my subscribers, as I felt responsible (for recommending it). At any rate, in about a week or two I will open registration for the new room, so stay tuned.
Henry