[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/093009-usadpnfp/093009-usadpnfp.mp4 480 360]
8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -200K Previous -298K
ACTION: USD/JPY or USD/CHF BUY -130K SELL -270K
ADP is probably the largest payroll processing providers in the world, and it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers, based on the private job’s sector, 2 days (sometimes one day) ahead of the official government Non-Farm Payroll release. This release is usually about 80% accurate to that of the official NFP. But the for the 20% of the time when it was inaccurate, its figures were totally off. This is a good news item to watch out for the general directional of the market and serves as a preview of the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out at least 70K more or less of the Forecast -200K, then we will look to take a trade with the best looking currency pair.
As I usually don’t expect to trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference, I would assume that most investors are likely to do the same; however, if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem taking advantage of the volatility.
Also keep in mind the conflict between the risk sentiment and fundamental outlook of U.S. economy as investors focus on this release for a clue on Friday’s NFP… the impact of this report may be exaggerated.
UPDATE: Release was a conflict with worse than expected Actual Figure but backwards revision up. If we add all of the numbers we’ll see that it was about 30K of difference, therefore it was a no trade…
Related posts:
- Will ADP NFP Confirm Friday’s NFP? [Video & Analysis]
- US ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change 09/02/09
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09
- Forex Plan For US ADP NFP Employment 09/01/10
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- US ADP NFP Nonfarm Payroll 03/03/2010
- US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
- US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/03/10
