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Canada Core CPI m/m 07/17/09

by Henry Liu on July 16, 2009

Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.0% Previous 0.3%
Action: BUY USD/CAD (-0.3%) SELL USD/CAD (+0.3%)
     

CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households(wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

Our surprise factor is 0.3%, if the CPI number (core) increases to a surprise at +0.3% then we will SELL of USD/CAD. If the CPI number decreases to -0.3% or less, we’ll BUY USD/CAD.Historically, even at a difference of 0.1% the market tends to overreact. If it does hit our S. Factor, there is 80% of chance it will move 50 pips.

(Update) The end result was a 0.0% release, exactly as expected. Therefore a no trade.

[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/071709-cadcpi/071709-cadcpi.mp4 480 360]

 

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