8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.0% SELL -0.2%
Since we have both retail sales coming out at 8:30am, we have to make sure there is no conflict with the numbers between the headline and core releases in order for us to get into a trade. Usually the Core Retail Sales is more accurate reflection of Retail sales because it excludes the Automotive components, which could be influenced by the recent “CASH FOR CLUNKERS” program, which has used up all of the funds allocated for it by the government; therefore the headline Retail Sales should be significantly higher than the Core Retail Sales, as the Headline number is expected to be at 1.9% (E). However, the US Core Retail Sales is the real focus of the economy which is a measure of real consumer discretionary spending.
As we could probably expect the market to react based on risk sentiment, therefore I may have to focus on other pairs such as the EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY for best results.
DEFINITION:
“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
UPDATE: As this better than expected release pushed USD back up against other currencies, market stated to move towards risk appetite; unfortunately, before my trade to go LONG on EUR/JPY could turn into a profit, I was stopped out by 30 pips on the strength of USD and JPY. I guess this is one of those type of days that you can’t do anything right.
Related posts:
- US Core Retail Sales m/m 11/16/09
- US Core Retail Sales m/m 10/14/09
- US Core Retail Sales m/m 12/11/09
- US Core CPI m/m 11/18/09
- UK Retail Sales m/m 08/20/09
- UK Retail Sales m/m 09/17/09
- Australia Retail Sales m/m 09/08/09
- UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010
- Forex Trade Plan For NZ Retail Sales m/m 07/13/10
- UK Retail Sales m/m 10/22/09
