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Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09

by Henry Liu on September 8, 2009

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Changes  Forecast -14.7  Previous 32.2K
ACTION: AUD/USD    BUY +10K   SELL -38K

This news release is similar to US NFP, but for Australia.  It is considered as a high impact report.  If the release is better, which will be good for AUD, we would BUY AUD/USD, if the release is worse, which will be bad for AUD, we would SELL AUD/USD.

In order to BUY AUD/USD, we should be looking for a positive number of at least 10K; to SELL AUD/USD, we need a minimum of -38K or worse to be taking the trade safely.  According to past history, if we do get our tradable releases, market has 80% of probability to move 40+ pips in the direction of our release.

One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 5.9%.  If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the plan.  If we get a conflict such as better employment (+10K) but worse Unemployment rate (-6.0%?) then it will be an automatic no trade.

DEFINITION

“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

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