8:30am (NY Time) US NonFarm Payroll Forecast -223K Previous -247K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -150K SELL -300K
Our primary focus will be on the actual release, which is expected to be at -223K. Wait for the numbers to come out, but do not take the trade YET, even if we get -150K or -300K. Now wait for the revision number, which is -247K. Market usually overracts with the Revision, so if it does not conflict with the release, we get a better chance of this trade working out.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at 9.5%. Be careful with this number as I have seen market focus on this number more than the actual NFP release in the event of a huge surprise. The August 2009 release (previous release) was at 9.4%, which surprised the market as it beat market expectation of 9.6% and the July’s actual release of 9.5%, a first improvement in unemployment rate in over a year…
As the NFP release will directly influence Fed’s definition of economic recovery, market has been very optimistic over the past few releases, which created a trend of continuing improvement in the job’s sector… If this release stays right on the path of recovery as in less jobs losses release, then market will probably react with a strong sense of risk appetite to finish the week. If the opposite is true, then most likely we’ll not see much reaction in the market.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/090409-nfp/090409-nfp.mp4 480 360]
UPDATE: We have a conflicting release and the market whipsawed immediately. Watch me as I read the market and based on previous experiences, I was able to choose the right direction, bank over 50 pips, and lead a room of happy traders to do so… You need to watch this video to make sure that you don’t choose the wrong direction in your trading!
Related posts:
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 11/06/09
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 12/04/09
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 01/08/10
- Trading The U.S. Nonfarm Payroll 06/04/10
- US NFP Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change 04/02/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Changes 02/05/10
- US Nonfarm Payroll NFP Employment Change 03/05/2010
- Forex Video & Analysis For U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (NFP) 08/06/10
- US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Analysis & Trade Plan 09/03/10
- Forex News Trading Nonfarm Payroll Employment (NFP) 02/04/11
{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
looking forward to your trading room when will it open?
Why dont you just record your own live account Henry as you said in the video its hard to juggle 3 things at once when trying to do the recorded trading plus trade your own account. So why not just record you true live account and just edit it and show it later, then we could see and get a better idea of your real or better results as you say?
Devin
Devin I don’t think there would be much of a difference as you can clearly see my method is very easy to follow with any type of account… I have shown a real account statement on Newsprofiteer.com, so if anyone have any questions, they can check there.
Hi Henry
I was doing well with my trades but I didn’t close early enough and not only got my profits wiped out but found myself in the red. Can you kindly give me a online radio link to listen to the NFP.
Thanks
Lena:
Don’t know what you are referring with the Radio Link, but if you are talking about the trade room, then signup for my newsletter or check this blog for updates. I should open the traderoom for registration in the next couple of weeks.
Henry
Hello Henry. I have written to you this before “Camilo Torres said, Hello Henry. I have sent the video and some time before i have sent some answers to some questions and i have never received the trick link or the other bonus you say you will send to us. COuld you check please? I would like to have you trick link. my email is camilotorrescruz@gmail.com
And your answer was:
Henry Liu said, Camilo please contact kc [at] newsprofiteer dot com, he will be able to take care of that for you.
Ok. i try to make contac by newsprofiteer.com (like many times before) and i don’t have any answer from you team.
Couldo you help me please?
Thanks a lot.
Ahhh, and when are we going to have acces to the DVD’s? I can’t wait for that.
thanksssss
Camilo email me at henry [at] newsprofiteer dot com, I will send you the URL myself.
I still don’t get what the revision number is, people keep talking about it? Is it a number you can only get on that “Tradethenews.com” or something? Its not the release number or anything like that is it?
Cheers Devin.
hi
where can we go to hear live results of this new release ?