8:15am (NY Time) US ADP NFP Changes Forecast -250K Previous -371K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY -180K SELL -320K
ADP is one of the largest payroll processing providers in the world, and every month it releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers 2 days (sometimes a day) prior to the official Non-Farm Payroll release. This release is about 80% accurate to NFP. But the 20% of the time when it was inaccurate, its figures were totally off. This is a good news item to watch out for directional trade, if the numbers comes out at least 70K more or less of the Forecast -250K, then we will look to take a trade with the best looking currency pair.
As I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference to the NFP release on Friday, I would assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will have no choice but to take advantage of the volatility.
Also keep in mind both the risk sentiment and fundamental outlook of U.S. economy, as lots of investors are focusing on this release for a clue on Friday’s NFP for monetary policy direction of the Feds, this leading indicator may actually move the market more than it should.
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/090209-usadp/090209-usadp.mp4 480 360]
UPDATE: It was a no trade because we didn’t get our tradable deviation plus the immediate market reaction to the news was rather muted. Although the market moved significantly in about a couple of hours, we had a mostly ranged trading day which proved me correct on staying out of the market.
Related posts:
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09
- US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
- US ADP NFP Changes 09/30/09
- Forex Plan For US ADP NFP Employment 09/01/10
- Will ADP NFP Confirm Friday’s NFP? [Video & Analysis]
- US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
- US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP) 10/02/09
- Forex Video & Analysis For U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (NFP) 08/06/10
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
Sorry about that Henry. Yeah I do have your E-book, thanks anyway, I better go back through it for a refresher as I seem to have a memory like a sieve.
cheers bro
Yes I stayed away from that one also.
When or what time does the NY equity market open as you metioned in this video that you were going to hang around for? Is it 8am NY time Henry?
Thanks Devin
That’s 9:30am… It is listed in my E-book on Market Cycle.