UK MPC Meeting Minutes 08/19/09

4:30am UK MPC Meeting Minutes      Forecast 0-0-9   Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: GBP/USD      Depending on Market Reaction

BOE or Bank of England Monetary Policy Committe will be disclosing the meeting minutes over the Interest Rate Decision meeting two weeks ago along with the actual vote count.  Last rate decision BOE decided to increase its APF (Asset Purchase Facility) by another 50 Billion Pound, which was against market expectation as most analysts were expecting a 25 Billion increase to keeping the current program unchanged.  The effects of this surprise increase are still visible in today’s market, as Sterling went on a sell-off streak to as much as 700 pips of loss against USD, and 900+ pips against the JPY.

Since the actual vote count to keep current rate at 0.50% is most likely unanimous, we will concentrate only on the minutes and the reasons behind the increase of the APF program. Should MPC Minutes surprise the market, we should see this short-term trend continue at least until the NY session.

I’ll be trading this release live as always do and I’ll post my results afterwards.  This trade is for the more advanced trader as we’ll have to deal not only with interpreting the actual minutes but also reading market sentiment, therefore unless you’ve traded this before, maybe it is better to skip it.

[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/081909-ukmpc/081909-ukmpc.mp4 480 360]

UPDATE: OK I have to admit that this is a complex one.  As I explained prior to the news release that Sterling has been punished enough by public sentiment for 2 weeks now, and for this same sentiment to continue, we’ll probably need a strong doom and gloom release which might be difficult given the market condition… So I basically called a LONG on GBP/JPY, but just waiting for the news release to get out of the way first…  Well, the release came out with a 6-3 split vote between 50 Billion APF increase and 75 Billion APF increase, and market reacted with immediate sell-off of the Sterling… But upon looking at the market condition and the Risk to Reward ratio over longer term, I decided maybe it is best to take a little more risk and ride this one out with a LONG trade based on several factors… So I got in at an obvious support point, knowing fully that the next support is about 100 pips away, preparing to see the worst…  To make a long story short, this trade involved Market Cycle, Sentiment Trading, Fundamental Analysis, and few other technical analysis, but the end result was about 80 pips of profit, and at the time of writing this update, market would’ve give me about 150 pips of profit if I kept the trade running…   Make sure you spent some time and watch this video, you won’t regret it! 

Related posts:

1. UK BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 11/05/09
2. UK BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 09/10/09
3. UK Retail Sales m/m 10/22/09
4. BOE MPC Official Bank Rate Decision 10/08/09
5. Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 10/19/09
6. Forex Video & Analysis For UK Retail Sales 8/19/20
7. UK Retail Sales m/m 09/17/09
8. UK Retail Sales m/m 11/19/09
9. US FOMC Meeting Minutes 09/02/09
10. BOE Official Bank Rate Decision 04/08/10

Tagged as: APF, asset purchase, Bank of England, BOE, GBP, gbp usd, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, market sentiment, Meeting Minutes, Minutes, MPC, pips, sentiment, Sterling, trade, UK