4:30am (NY Time) UK CPI y/y Forecast 1.5% Previous 1.8%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.7% SELL 1.3%
CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia). It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.
Our surprise factor is 0.2%, if the CPI number increases to a surprise at 1.7% then we will BUY of GBP/USD. If the CPI number decreases to 1.3% or less, we’ll SELL GBP/USD. Historically, even at a different of 0.1% the market tends to overreact. If it does hit our S. Factor, there is 80% of chance it will move 50 pips.
NOTE: Based on the BOE Quarterly Inflation Report on August 12, “CPI likely to fall below 1% in autumn 2009; likely at 1.5% level in two years time; might meet target on contant rates”, we’ve gotten a heads up of a possibly worse than expected number here, so we could see some sentiment moving towards selling Sterling prior to the release. Note the time of this post is 6:35pm and I will be looking for a possible entry to SELL GBP/USD…
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/081809-ukcpi/081809-ukcpi.mp4 480 360]
UPDATE: I entered at the first retracement on GBP/USD, then also on GBP/JPY. Market paid out on record 40 pips in less than 50 minutes, watch this video on how I execute this classic retracement trade.
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{ 12 comments… read them below or add one }
Henry,
Thanks for your reply and looking forward to your detailed post on the strength meter.
Swifteagle:
Thank you for your kind words and I wish you the best, but the situation with scams in Nigeria is a worldwide issue, not much I can do there… maybe you can write to my billing department and talk about wire-transfer option or western union, email to kc [at] newsprofiteer.com
Thank you for the info! how much is it to join your trade room?
Still working out the details, but will post that information here once it has been decided. Thanks for your interest!
Hello Henry,
i have been avividly following ur blog for a while and am convinced that you are for real. i will like to have you as my mentor and teach me very well on Fundamental analysis. i follow ur trades on demo sometimes. i will also like to purchase ur e-book but paypal doesn’t recognise nigeria so am having some difficulty with that. i will try some other alternatives.
the excel sheet you speak of that can indicate currency strenght, is it something you can give out? i would like to have access to that to help me grow in FX trading.
thanks a bunch,
Henry, i really have keen interest in forex trading but i don’t know from where to start. pls i need your guidance
henry, i really need ur help with a couple of things.i need you to be my mentor in forex currency trading. i am from Nigeria. if there is anything extra training and materials i have to read to make better analysis and prediction please show. i will be very grateful if your magnanimity allows do that for me
Franky: I can’t help until the beginning of Sept., where I will be opening my trade room. I will give a limited amount of invite so if you are interested, please make sure you signup.
Hi Henry,
I’m curious about the strength meter in the video.Where did you get it? Seems to help you a lot to pick the right pairs to trade.
Pipster
Yes it is an excel sheet that works with MT4 platform and gives you the strength and weakness of currencies at a glance. I used it a lot to pinpoint market condition, especially good to identify which pairs to trade. I will write a detailed post on this subject later.
Hi Henry, I would like to know where you get your news releases. Ive been using Forex Factory but it is too slow.
Also, Eres Cubano?
Thanks.
Alex, no I think my last name should give you some clue… I am chinese…
I use a newswire service called tradethenews.com
they are probably the best value wire service out there, especially they only charge $175 for their Forex Audio service. You can get a 7 day trial if you visit them:
Trade The News