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US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 08/05/09

by Henry Liu on August 4, 2009

10:00am (NY Time) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI   Forecast 48.1   Previous 47.0
ACTION: USD/JPY      BUY 50.5      SELL 45.5

We’ll trade today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as it is a leading indicator of the nation’s Services sector.  This will also provide clues of possible change in the employment trend.  We’ll be careful to interpret the reaction because of the wide impact it has as an US news event.

DEFINITION

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/080509-usnmpmi/080509-usnmpmi.mp4 480 360]

UPDATE: PMI came out worse than expected and sparked a flow of risk aversion movement that started with the ADP data.  But since we didn’t get the deviation that I was looking for to maintain a steady flow of risk aversion movement, I decided to go against the move and went LONG on both GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY right along the bottom of the move… the result was about 60+ pips of gain.  Not a bad trade…

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