8:30am CA GDP m/m Forecast -0.4% Previous -0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.1% BUY -0.7%
Our focus will be on CA GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects BOC’s decision directly.
We are looking for a +0.5% and -0.3% deviation on the expected 0.1%. Therefore if we get a 0.1% on the monthly GDP, it would be somewhat CA Dollar positive. We will SELL USD/CAD. However, if we get a -0.7% release, then we would be BUYING USD/CAD.
If our surprise is hit, the market will move 40~50 pips within the hour 80% of the time. However, with US Quarterly Advanced GDP scheduled to be released at the same time, we’ll just take one trade based on the best case scenario… If we get a conflict with US data, we’ll likely to skip this report as the US GDP takes precedence.
UPDATE: I didn’t trade this release as the US GDP was my primary focus. The entire market went on a high volatility mode and went back on a whipsaw at the end of London trading session… Watch the video as I gauge market reaction and call a trade.
[flv:http://www.newsprofiteer.com/073109-usgdp/073109-usgdp.mp4 480 360]
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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
Once again, prudent news advice.
While it only came in at -0.5%, I took the trade (Buy) because of the strong price action. Entered on the pullback and rode it up to resistance at 1.0850.
Not bad work – 40pips in about 30 minutes.
Thanks again