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Currency Trading Tips # 1: Don’t bet the farm… (The Grandma Indicator)

by Henry Liu on July 27, 2009

Last week turned out to be another week of risk appetite driven week… Seems like everyone and their cousins are ready to get back in the market and start to “make money” while bunch of so-called analysts are popping up everywhere saying that “recovery will take full force” and “there are more room for this upside move”; if you watched any of these financial channels over the weekend, undoubtedly you should be convinced of what a great opportunity it is… so what are you waiting for?

Well, before you take out that 2nd mortgage or cash in your credit cards to fund your account, if you’d recall, isn’t eerily similar to that time just before the equity market crashed or when that GBP/JPY pair dropped into a bottomless pit?  I mean just when everyone and their mothers are sure it is time to get in the market, it is already too late to get in…

I saw this is an article once before and the author calls it the “grandma indicator”… basically if even your grandmother tells you that it is time to invest in the stock market because _____ (fill in the blank), then you better believe it, everyone else pretty much knows about it too…  And this usually means:

Smart Money is already in and possibly looking to cash out, and as you are getting into the market, you are basically buying at the top or selling at the bottom, help these Smart Money investors to pay for their overpriced cars and mansions…

So what is the golden rule of trading?  You BUY low and SELL high!  Why would anyone want to BUY high and then SELL low is beyond me, and just when the WHOLE market is convinced that we’ll see even higher highs, I am convinced that the fall will be that much harder, believe it or not.

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{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }

PD January 4, 2012 at 2:42 am

Hi Henry
I looked over your performance tables in http://www.forexnewstradingacademy.com/trade-room-performance/. It does not look like news trading is a major source of your PIP gains.. Can you please comment on this? I meant no disrespect, but just surprised since your focus seems to be on trading the news. Thanks a lot.

Reply

Henry Liu January 4, 2012 at 1:25 pm

News trading is often mistaken for spike trading. I do news trading all the time, but not spike trading… so the daily recommendations are based on news, but not on news spike trading. I hope this answers your question.

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Johnbenson November 17, 2011 at 12:06 am

I am aware of the existence of strength meter and market cycle. How do I have them?

Reply

Henry Liu November 20, 2011 at 9:12 pm

You can get the meter for free at http://www.currencystrengthmeter.com.
However, market cycle is my proprietary trading method, you need to either get my ebook or join my traderoom – http://www.forexnewstradingacademy.com
Thanks,

Henry

Reply

bankole emmanuel July 15, 2011 at 8:37 pm

hi henry the special one,i have downloaded the currency strength meter but i have not been abel it install it,please i need i clue on that,how do i go about that?plzzzzz

Reply

Henry Liu July 18, 2011 at 10:48 am

Did you follow the installation guide?

Reply

Johnson June 11, 2011 at 9:02 am

hi Henry the special one,once again thanks for the love of mankind.sir, how much will it cost to secure a trade circle? thanks.

Reply

Henry Liu June 11, 2011 at 9:56 am

I am in the process of revamping my course and it should be ready in a month… the price will be much more affordable as well.

Reply

deepak sakhiya February 4, 2011 at 4:42 am

hi, henry..
u r the legend of forex market,,i daily follow y.r mail alert and method,,but some time i can’t understand about (k and %) fugyre can u explaine in shorlty which web site i can find that?

Reply

uday November 18, 2010 at 7:46 am

hi henry …
you are always good at news trading

thank you

Reply

Scott August 3, 2010 at 2:01 pm

Hi Henery,

How do you determine Market Cycle.

Thanks

Scott

Reply

Henry Liu August 3, 2010 at 3:45 pm

There is a fixed time in the daily trading called market cycle. I have an entire trading system build around it, including entries, exits, everything. It is a proprietary system so I cannot share it freely.

Reply

Akbar June 29, 2010 at 2:05 am

How can you determine if the price is at it lows? Like how do we know it is at its lows?

Reply

Henry Liu June 29, 2010 at 9:42 pm

You really can’t, so what you do is gauge market sentiment and see if there still are concerns that would push the market further. I use both Strengthmeter and Market Cycle for my entries, and of course I pay attention to any breaking news that may change market sentiment.

Henry

Reply

KHALID April 9, 2010 at 6:09 am

Nice tips

Thanks for ur effort

Reply

Paul August 10, 2009 at 2:31 am

Hi henry,
your a legend i find your bogs interesting, when i watch the fundamental news i fund it accurate,

Reply

Don K July 30, 2009 at 5:48 am

Hi Henry

Don’t get to talk to you much —but I am really enjoying the Videos. Looking forward to the DVD.
great work.

Don K

Reply

Camilo Torres July 28, 2009 at 7:31 am

Great advice. IS very common when the Cab driver talk with you (in my conuntry – Colombia) about the stock market or the currency market and he start to recomend you to buy some stocks or some dollars because ____. They appear like the professional and when that happen is a great time because now you have a great confirmation of reversal in the market and you can catch the top. This is a very good system here.
Thanks Henry for the advice.

Reply

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