Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD. Here is the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.9% Previous 0.5%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.2% SELL 0.6%
The Trade Plan
We’ll be looking for a devation of 0.3% or more, therefore if we get 1.2% or better, we’ll be BUYING AUD/USD; however, if we get a 0.6% or worse, we’ll probably see AUD/USD start to move downward.
The Market
We’ll focus on GDP release which is expected at 0.9%, a 0.4% increase from the previous 0.5% release. As Australia GDP has maintained on the positive side for the last 5 quarters, this release will mark the 6th consecutive positive release.
Looking at the current market, specially with the recent Retail Sales number surprising to the upside, high home price index, low unemployment, and positive trade balances, we are likely to see a better than expected release or at the very least in-line with expectation figure.
Additional Thoughts
AUDUSD is a slow moving currency and in the event that we get a strong release, we could see renewed risk appetite that would be the key focus of the session. Market will probably push AUD/USD back above the 0.9000 or 0.9100, where is the immediate resistance area.
Therefore, on a strong release, it may be best to jump in as soon as possible because we may not see much of retracement.
Pre-news Considerations
I’d be looking to BUY AUDUSD prior to this release, preferrably during US afternoon or whenever AUDUSD reaches support area (0.8900?). I believe there may be some limited demand for this currency prior to the schedule.
DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”
Related posts:
- Forex News Trading Plan For AU GDP q/q 03/01/11
- Australia GDP q/q 12/15/09
- Forex News Trading AU GDP q/q 09/06/11
- Trading Tips For Australia GDP q/q 06/01/10
- Forex News Trade AUD GDP q/q 05/31/11
- Australia GDP q/q 03/02/2010
- Australia GDP q/q 09/01/09
- Forex Trading Plan For UK Revised GDP q/q 08/27/10
- UK Final GDP q/q 03/30/2010
- Forex News Trading Plan For AU RBA Interest Rate 10/03/11
