Hey folks:
It’s Henry Liu here with this week’s upcoming news releases… and as usual, I’ll be sending you more detailed analyses just a day prior to their scheduled releases… This week is going to be quiet compared to the hectic week we had, but because it is going to be quiet, market should react more to pre-news sentiments… So it may very well be a great week!
- Tue August 10, 2010 2:15pm EDT – US Federal Funds Rate
- Wed August 11, 2010 9:30pm EDT – AU Employment Change
- Thu August 12, 2010 6:45pm EDT – NZ Retail Sales
- Fri August 13, 2010 8:30am EDT – US Core CPI & Retail Sales
…and of course, some untradable releases.1.Mon August 9, 2010 – JP Interest Rate – Usually it’s leaked early on, therefore not tradable.
2.Tue August 10, 2010 8:15am EDT – CA Housing Start – Not enough impact to move the entire market
3.Wed August 11, 2010 4:30am EDT – UK Claimant Count – Not tradable but I’m looking to possibly make it tradable next month…
4.Wed August 11, 2010 5:30am EDT – UK Inflation Report – I’ll send out a analysis on this release.
5.Wed August 11, 2010 8:30am EDT – CA & US Trade Balance – Usually not tradable… market doesn’t care about this number.
6.Thu August 12, 2010 8:30am EDT – US Unemployment Claims – Only important during NFP week…
7.Fri August 13, 2010 9:55am EDT – US Prelim U0M Consumer Sentiment – May move the market since itis the last high impact release for the week…Following the tradition, here is how the market ended the week before last week (7/26~30):
EUR Gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 1.5% against USD
CAD gained 0.5% against USD
AUD gained 1.0% against USD
NZD remained unchanged against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF gained 1.0% against USD…and last week (8/2~6):
EUR gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 2.0% against USD
CAD remained unchanged
AUD gained 1.5% against USD
NZD gained 1.0% against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchangedThe major news last week was the NFP release, which surprised to the downside and sparked another round of USD sell-offs. However, market didn’t react well to Trichet on Thursday either, which made me think that the 1.3400~1.3450 level should be the top for EUR/USD pair this week…
With USD Index at four month lows, it is very possible that we’ll see rebound to USD strength, if this week’s FOMC statement provides support. Market is already at the bottom end of the range for every single USD pairs, and it is just now a matter of time for a strong reversal to take place.
Another important observation is the fact that USD is still a safe-haven currency, but the market reacted though no one was told about this. The immediate outlook sounds bleak for the US with the job’s number worsening, but floating funds into Euro and JPY is just not the answer. That’s another reason I believe we are on the verge of a major reversal soon…
Statistically speaking, after several weeks in a row of USD weakness, the chances of a rebound is more likely than ever. A small news could spark snowball effect of profit taking and rebalancing of portfolios, therefore I’d use extreme caution at following the current trend (Sell USD) this week.
Therefore as far as trend recommendations, I’d be looking at the usual suspects, JPY and CAD for reversals. I’d be looking for psychological resistance areas and sell-off from there using a stop/loss of 40~50 pips, in hopes of catching 50 to 200 pips if the market indeed reverses. Here is what I’ll be looking for (As usual, use your own good jugment and only follow based on your own research. Don’t follow blindly as I’m writing this on a Sunday (I cannot see the future), but assuming there are no surprises in the market, this is what I’d do)
1. BUY USD/CAD between 1.0100~1.0000
2. BUY USD/JPY between 85.00 ~ 85.10And yes, I am staying away from GBP as the fundamental outlook shows more gain for this currency. But in the event of a major USD reversal, GBP will drop, but it will probably be the most resilient currency against USD.
Thanks,
Henry Liu
Related posts:
- Upcoming Forex News Trade Forecast For August 1 ~ 5, 2011
- Upcoming Forex News Trade For August 8 ~ 12, 2011
- Upcoming High Impact Forex News For December 13 ~ 17, 2010
- Upcoming News Releases Of the Week December 6 ~ 10, 2010
- Upcoming Signals Overview (June 13 ~ June 17, 2011)
- Upcoming Tradable Forex News For January 17 ~ 21, 2011
- Upcoming Signals Overview (March 21 ~ 25, 2011)
- Upcoming Forex News for May 23 ~ 27, 2011
- Upcoming Forex Tradable News – March 28 ~ April 1, 2011
- Upcoming Forex Trading News For July 25 ~ 29, 2011
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
This project is highly appreciated! iam looking forward to do the same after a thorough tutor from ur site….thanks
Hello Henry,
Aisha is right. I have also been depending on your daily newsletter before make any trade. it has really been helpful to me too….
I guess you are not going to stop sending them because you are very busy with the 10k to 1MM program ( i have already sign up for the 10K to 1MM program).
It will be really nice if you can get some time and start sending the daily newsletter again for the news trading……
Thank you your all your help.
Ernest.
Hi Henry,
Did you execute the pre-sentiment trades that you recommended? To me it looks like excellent choices as usd/cad from market open on Sunday is about 200 pips up and, usd/jpy was up to 86.22 at some point (about 110 pips). Depending on entries (let’s assume market open) it would of been very nice trades. Did you guys take these trades in your 10k to 1mm project?
10Kto1MM has not started officially yet. It will start next week.
Hello Henry, i have not received your email on the daily newsletter, i just thought that i should find out i hope all is well, i always depend it before i trade and it is really helpful to me,.
thanks for the assistance.