Here’s again for this week’s upcoming news releases and as usual, I’ll be sending you more detailed analysis for each and every one of the high impact tradable releases listed below:
1. Mon August 2, 2010 4:30am EST – UK Manufacturing PMI:
2. Mon August 2, 2010 10:00am EST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI:
3. Mon August 2, 2010 9:30pm EST – AU Retail Sales:
4. Tue August 3, 2010 12:30am EST – RBA Interest Rate:
5. Wed August 4, 2010 4:30am EST – UK Services PMI
6. Wed August 4, 2010 8:15am EST – US ADP NFP Employment:
7. Thu August 5, 2010 7:00am EST – UK BOE Interest Rate:
8. Thu August 5, 2010 7:45am EST – EU ECB Interest Rate:
9. Fri August 6, 2010 7:00am EST – CA Employment Change
10. Fri August 6, 2010 8:30am EST – US NFP Employment Change
And of course as usual, there are some untradable news releases:
- Mon August 2, 2010 3:15am – CH Retail Sales – Usually CH is not affected by its fundamental outlook, but by the market’s risk sentiment. Best to skip it than trying to force a trade….
- Tue August 3, 2010 10:00am – US Pending Home Sales – Most of the time market just ignores this release, and especially so when home sales are expected to be under pressure, so there is no real surprise factor.
- Tue August 3, 2010 9:30pm – AU Trade Balance – Not tradable by historical records, rather not waste time on this release.
- Wed August 4, 2010 10:00am – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – Track records of this release are showing a general muted reaction, therefore best to skip it.
- Wed August 4, 2010 6:45pm – NZ Employment Change – I usually don’t trade this release as market usually fails to react. NZD is a risk and commodity currency. Best to trade this currency on risk sentiment than on fundamental outlook.
- Thu August 5, 2010 8:30am EST – EU Trichet Press Conference – I will try to write an analysis for this release, but I do not recommend anyone that’s not experienced with Trichet’s speech to trade it. Market could move violently and it’s better to stay out.
- Fri August 6, 2010 4:30am EST – UK PPI & Manuf. Prod. – Not market moving news releases. Best to stay out and concentrate on the REAL mover at 8:30am.
Following the upcoming overview tradition, let’s take a look at the week before last week and how the market traded last week:
EUR remained unchanged
GBP gained 1.0% against USD
CAD gained 2.0% against USD
AUD gained 3.0% against USD
NZD gained 2.0% against USD
JPY lost 1.0% against USD
CHF remained unchanged
…and last week (7-26~30, 2010)
EUR Gained 1.5% against USD
GBP gained 1.5% against USD
CAD gained 0.5% against USD
AUD gained 1.0% against USD
NZD remained unchanged against USD
JPY gained 1.0% against USD
CHF gained 1.0% against USD
With 2 weeks of consecutive broad losses on the USD, market is definitely looking at this week’s NFP for direction. With major releases from USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD all scheduled for the week, the directional bias for the weekly trend is hard to determine. I would remain on the sidelines for the time being… However, here are my thoughts and take it using your own good judgment.
AUD should be bearish and my opinion is twofold. First, RBA is not expected to hike interest rate and the accompanied statement should be bearish as there are no expectations for rate hikes until 2011. Second, the general sentiment of risk aversion could take over this week’s general market trend as the world is once again reminded in the bleak outlook of US Employment sector. My view is to SELL AUD/USD from the top and my target is still on the 0.8650 level. This is a longer-term outlook, but I believe for AUD/USD to remain at the current level it would take a tremendous amount of positive momentum… It is like going upstream and eventually it will have to come down…
JPY is likely to react to risk sentiment, but my long-term outlook is for a weaker JPY as technically this currency is screaming for a consolidation, but based on market sentiment, BOJ has brought up intervention possibilities in the event, that most traders believe, when USDJPY breaches the 85.00. I for one do not expect to see this level anytime soon, but I’d be buying USD/JPY at 85.00 if we get there. As USD/JPY is definitely forming a bottom around the current levels (87~85), a broader long-term view is for USD/JPY back above the 90s…
So folks, this is it. I’ll be sending you more detail analyses for each and every one of the tradable releases this week before their schedule. Make sure you’ve signed up for my newsletter…
Thank you,
Henry Liu
Related posts:
- Upcoming Forex News Trade Forecast For August 1 ~ 5, 2011
- Upcoming Forex News Trade For August 8 ~ 12, 2011
- Upcoming Signals Overview (June 13 ~ June 17, 2011)
- Upcoming High Impact Forex News For December 13 ~ 17, 2010
- Upcoming News Releases Of the Week December 6 ~ 10, 2010
- Upcoming Signals Overview (March 21 ~ 25, 2011)
- Upcoming Tradable Forex News For January 17 ~ 21, 2011
- Forex Market Weekly Analysis March 22, 2010
- Forex Trade Signal For US New Home Sales 09/24/10
- Forex Fundamental Economic Outlook 08/10/09
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Hello Big brother Mr. Henry Liu,
It is a thing of joy to know that you are there to help existing and new trader to become professional in financial trading.
Thanks a million for your analysis and advice.
I have been following your analysis and articles and I hope to start trading it.
There few things bothering me and I want your advice and clarification.
(1) In one of your letters/articles you explained how to trade news release. You talked about SPIKE TRADING and RETRACEMENT TRADING.
As for SPIKE TRADING, I usually get news release from forexpeacearmy news calendar and forexfactory but these news sources are a little bit delayed because there data comes out few minutes or seconds after the market has started moving.
Also, Brokers problem of requote and few other things like poor internet speed does not encourage me to do SPIKE TRADING.
The most discouraging thing is that I don’t have access to the news release data before the market moves reasonable.
Please Mr Liu, how do I handle this and what is your advice? Where can I get a news release data faster before the market react to it?
(2) RETRACEMENT TRADING: My difficulty in trading retracement is how to figure out the point at which the retracement will be over for price to after the retracement.
How do I figure out where the retracement will end so as to enter a trade?
I feel that the essence of news trading is to trade certainty and avoid unnecessary prediction and guess work using technical analysis.
Is news retracement trading not more of technical analysis and guess work/unnecessary predictions?
In your usual posted news analysis, you always provide the trigger value, the currency pair of interest, expected pip movement (50pips in most cases). This expected pip movement, is it expected for SPIKE TRADING or RETRACEMENT TRADING (that is, from the point of retracement)?
(3) I read about straddle as a way of news trading but you never mentioned it.
What do you think about it and what is your advice, is it a good news trading strategy and do you advice me to trade it?
Please note: I have lost money trading fx that is why I have taken time to write and send you this article of question.
Please just try and give me specific response and advice on how to trade successfully because as I’m writing to you now my account has been wiped out twice?
Please help a drowning man.
Regards,
Sammy.
1. Get a newswire service such Tradethenews.com or Ransquawk.com
2. Search for Double Fibonacci on my blog for more inforation.
3. Straddle doesn’t work. Your broker is going to screw you and pickup both BUY and SELL trades at the same time by widening spread.
Hi Henrry
i am new in your web site , also i am a new trader, ( unfortunatly i have lost money till now,…)i hope there is any chance to can get some training of how and when to use your signals and analysis .
thanks
shane
Hi Henry,
Thank you very much for all the great work that you have been doing on the Forex market. I have really learn a lot from you through your emails and your websites as I continue to make a lot of pips each week. I look forward in trading with you again this week through your weekly analysis information as well as your currency strength meter. GOD WILL RICHLY BLESS YOU FOR ALL YOUR HELP.
Thanks.
Ernest