Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, here’s the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 16K Previous 33.7K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 45K SELL -15K
Australian Employment Change release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. With RBA on a pause for further monetary tightening policy, if this release also surprise to the downside, it would push AUD beyond current support and we would be looking to SELL AUD/USD; however, if the release is better, we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD from the top as a longer term trade as AUD may not have enough momentum to remain strong.
Te safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to rise to 5.4%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Related posts:
- Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09
- Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09
- Forex Trading Strategy For Canada Employment Change 07/09/10
- Canada Employment Change Forex Trading Strategy 09/10/10
- Forex Strategy For Canadian Employment Change 08/05/11
- Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09
- Forex Strategy For US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change 08/05/11
- Forex Trading Strategy For Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change (NFP) 07/02/10
- Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09
- Forex News Trading Canada Employment Change 11/05/10
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
The AUD spiked from 0.8295 to 0.8315 … on announcement.
Then the AUD went from 0.8320 to 0.8340 from 9:45pm to 10pm.
Kept going higher. Despite the fact that the RBA will be pausing on rates for the short term future.
This release has no bearing on the longer term view of AUD. This is a temporary movement in my opinion.
Hi Henry I’m surprised you said;
“however, if the release is better, we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD from the top as a longer term trade as AUD may not have enough momentum to remain strong.”
as the AUD kept rising within the 2 hour time frame.
AUD/USD will ultimately trade below 0.8000, so this rise should allow you to position your longer term trade.