UK quarterly GDP release is always an high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
4:30am (NY Time) UK GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: (GBP/USD) BUY 0.7% SELL 0.1%
The much anticipated UK Prelim GDP q/q for Q1 2010 is expected to be a positive release of 0.4%. GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.
Our surprise factor is 0.3%, and we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.1% or worse and BUY GBP/USD at 0.7% or better. This is the 2nd consecutive quarter of positive GDP release from UK, and if we do end up with a positive release, it means that the economy in UK is officially out of recession (technical recession ends with 2 consecutive positive releases), therefore adding to the demand for GBP. However, if we get another negative release, the tide will turn as traders will dump any GBP in their portfolio.
Since the Prelim GDP is the first release of the quarterly GDP, it’s usually the one with most potential for surprises. This is the most important news event for UK in this week, and a highly anticipated one.
Related posts:
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP 10/26/10
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/25/11
- UK 2nd Quarter Prelim GDP Analysis & Video 07/23/10
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 07/26/11
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 04/27/11
- Forex Trading Plan For UK Revised GDP q/q 08/27/10
- UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09
- UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 02/25/11
- UK Final GDP q/q 03/30/2010
