Today’s Retail Sales number will be the first high impact news release out of the UK today, and as retail sales usually makes up a large portion of the GDP number, market should react to this release with exaggeration if we get our deviation today… here is the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) Forecast 0.7% Previous 2.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 1.3% SELL 0.1%
Retail Sales by definition is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6%. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. With recent bullish news in the US and the general bearish trend in Euro, GBP has been supported as it’s economic outlook is much better compared to that of the European Union. If we were to get a positive release, we could see a strong demand for GBP as it may be the best option for the region as well as being a high risk currency. If we were to get a worse than expected release, market may not react as much, therefore it’s important to gauge immediate market reaction before jumping in.
Related posts:
- Trade Plan For UK Retail Sales 05/20/10
- Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 06/17/10
- Forex News Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales m/m 11/18/10
- Forex Trade Plan & Video For UK Retail Sales 07/22/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 12/16/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales 10/21/10
- Forex Trading Plans For UK Retail Sales m/m 09/16/10
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 01/21/11
- UK Retail Sales m/m 11/19/09
- Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 03/24/11
