US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change      Forecast 40K     Previous -20K
ACTION: USD/JPY       BUY +90K         SELL -10K

We’ll be focusing on the ADP NFP Employment Release today and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary private payroll data.

About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions,  we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.  But because of the accuracy of this release on jobs market in the private sector, even if the numbers are off it still provides good forecast in the private sector and possibly a preview of NFP.

I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem jumping into the market, and this will undoubtedly change market perception on Friday’s NFP release, therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.

With NFP forecasted at +180K on Friday, the +40K of forecast on this ADP release seems to be little in comparison… but if we get a strong release today, expect market to start pricing in for risk appetite sentiment early.

Related posts:

1. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 01/06/10
2. US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
3. Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/03/10
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11/04/09
5. Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 01/05/11
6. US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
7. Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 02/02/11
8. Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/30/10
9. Forex Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment Change 08/03/11
10. Forex Trade Plan For US ADP NFP Change 12/01/10

Tagged as: ADP, Adp Payroll, Advanced Data Processing, employment release, Employment Situation, Future Market, Market Perception, market trend, NFP, Payroll Processing