4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Final GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the 3rd release for the quarterly GDP of Q4 2009; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically the indicator of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Since this is the third release of the 4th quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get any surprise as most 3rd releases are pretty much inline. However, looking at current market condition and the possible risk appetite sentiment surrounding this week’s releases, we could see some volatility or even a trading opportunity should this release surprise the market even by 0.1%… therefore we’ll wait for the release and look for a possible retracement trade.
Our surprise factor is 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.0% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.6% or better. Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report, even if it’s the 3rd or Final GDP release.
Related posts:
- UK Revised GDP q/q 02/26/2010
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 11/24/10
- UK Revised GDP q/q 05/25/10
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP 10/26/10
- Forex Trading Plan For UK Revised GDP q/q 08/27/10
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 01/25/11
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 02/25/11
- UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 04/27/11
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP 08/26/11
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
Henry ur guide is really helpful, God bless u. the release for today on Aud retail sales came out with a good deviation of -1.4 which would have been buying compare to ur forcast which is 0.3 sell 0.9 buy. pls why is the release was than expected?
No one can say for sure what the actual release will be, so it could be anything close to expectation.
hi,pls i just watched the UK Final GDP and the actual came out as 0.4% which was good for the economy. my question is why did it drop down so bad within the first 15M.
thanks for your news letter can’t do without it.
I think it has to do with Buy on Rumor and Sell on news. Rumor were pushing market to BUY GBP pre-release, and after an as expected release, traders start to take profit and drove GBP down.