8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast -15K Previous -22K
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY +55K SELL -85K
We’ll be looking for a trading opportunity on the ADP NFP Employment Release today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about 2 days before the actual NFP based on it’s proprietary data.
About 80% of the time ADP’s release will go in tandem with the official NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions, we’d get figures that could be totally off from the official NFP forecast. But because of the accuracy of this release on jobs market in the private sector, even if the numbers are off it still provides good forecast in the private sector.
As I usually don’t trade the ADP figure but rather use this release as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem jumping into the market, and this will undoubtedly change market perception on Friday’s NFP release, therefore it is best to be around your computer during the release time rather than finding out what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
If we get a +55K of release, it would be both risk appetite and USD positive, we’ll be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a -85K or worse, then expect to see JPY strengthen across the board.
Related posts:
- US ADP Non-farm Employment Change 03/31/10
- US ADP NFP (Non-farm Payroll) 02/03/10
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/03/10
- US ADP NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Change 12/02/09
- Forex Trade Plan For US ADP NFP Change 12/01/10
- Trading Strategy For US ADP NFP Employment 06/30/10
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 01/05/11
- Forex News Trading Plan For US ADP NFP Employment 10/06/10
- ADP NFP Trading Strategy 11/03/10
- Forex News Trading US ADP NFP Employment Change 02/02/11
