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UK Manufacturing PMI 03/01/2010

by Henry Liu on March 1, 2010

4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI  Forecast 56.3   Previous 56.7
ACTION: GBP/USD        BUY 58.3         SELL 54.3

We’ll be looking forward to trade the Manufacturing PMI number from UK  today and it’s forecasted at 56.3; UK Manufacturing PMI’s medium point is at 50, therefore this forecast is considered as a positive release (above the 50 level means expansion in the manufacturing sector).

We are looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure)  of 2.0, and because this is a leading indicator and its impact may affect the future trend of this currency for the remainder of the week or even for the month of March, market should react to this release with volatility should we get out deviation.  We can expect GBP/USD to move 50 pips within the hour if you deviation is hit. 

Due to the risk adverse sentiment in the market and the general weakness of GBP, I’d use extreme caution on the better than expected release as GBP is still expected to depreciate against the USD in the short term… Take the context of the market into your trading consideration.

DEFINITION:

UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.”

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