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US Prelim GDP q/q 02/26/2010

by Henry Liu on February 25, 2010

8:30am NY Time US Prelim GDP q/q  Forecast 5.6%  Previous 5.7%
ACTION: USD/JPY         BUY 5.9%        SELL 5.3%

We’ll be trading the 4th (Q4 2009) quarterly release of U.S. GDP number.  The first release, or the Advanced GDP release last month, came out surprising upwards at 5.7% and we’ll probably not see much volatility in the market on this second release as more usually during the 2nd release more data have become available thus less possibilities of surprise.  The important fact is to consider the context of the market at the time of the news release, remember market have priced in this release already.

Our deviation is going to be 0.3% and should we get 5.9% release, it would be good USD; if we get a 5.3%, it would be negative for USD.

DEFINITION:

“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”

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