4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.5% SELL -0.1%
We’ll be focusing on the Revised GDP q/q from UK, which is also known as the second quarterly GDP release; GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measurement of the economy, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely raise interest rate as better economy usually brings higher inflationary pressure…
Since this is the second release of the 4th quarter GDP, we’re not likely to get any surprise as most 2nd releases are pretty much inline. However, judging from the expected release of 0.2%, which is already higher than the Prelim Release (first quarterly GDP release) last month, some pre-buying or support in the Sterling should take place prior to the release; however with the current risk aversion mode, most traders will be looking to SELL into a rally; therefore be careful with any LONG GBP trades.
Our surprise factor is the same usual one of 0.3% as we’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at -0.1% or worse, and BUY GBP/USD at 0.5% or better. Historically, there is a 80% of chance if our S. Factor is hit, the market will move up to 50~70 pips within the hour as GDP is a very high impact report.
Related posts:
- UK Revised GDP q/q 05/25/10
- Forex Trading Plan For UK Revised GDP q/q 08/27/10
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 11/24/10
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 02/25/11
- UK Revised GDP q/q 11/25/09
- UK Final GDP q/q 03/30/2010
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP 08/26/11
- Forex News Trading UK Revised GDP q/q 5/25/11
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP 10/26/10
- Forex News Trading UK Prelim GDP q/q 04/27/11
