UK Retail Sales m/m 02/19/2010

4:30am (NY Time)    Forecast -0.5%   Previous 0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD         BUY 0.1%       SELL -1.1%

We’ll be focusing on the month on month Retail Sales release today from UK; it’s a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail levels.  A higher release is generally good for the economy, thus better for it’s currency; a lower release is considered as negative for the economy and not good for it’s currency.  Retail Sales makes up a substantial part of the GDP or Gross Domestic Product, and the effect of this release could be very profound given the current risk averse condition of the market.

Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.6% on the Headline number. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%.  With recent bullish news in the US and the general bearish trend in all European currencies, GBP has broken current support areas and the next significant support is below the 1.5000… should we get a better release, we should look to SELL from the top instead of buying GBP, and on a worse than expected release, market may exaggerate in GBP sell offs.

Related posts:

1. UK Retail Sales 03/25/2010
2. UK Retail Sales m/m 01/22/10
3. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 02/18/11
4. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 01/21/11
5. Trade Plan For UK Retail Sales 05/20/10
6. Forex News Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales m/m 11/18/10
7. UK Retail Sales m/m 12/17/09
8. Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 06/17/10
9. Forex Trading Plan For UK Retail Sales 04/22/10
10. Forex News Trading UK Retail Sales m/m 03/24/11

Tagged as: Consumer Consumption, currency, economy, Expectation, GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, GDP, Headline Number, market sentiment, Measurement, retail level, Retail Sales, Sales Forecast, Sterling, UK, uk retail sales