7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change Forecast 15.1K Previous 35.2K
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 45K SELL -15K
We’ll be trading the Australian Employment Change release today as this news release is similar to US Nonfarm Payroll Changes, but for Australia. This release is considered as a high impact report as the job’s market have a direct influence over the entire economy, which in turn affects inflation, and inflation will affect future RBA monetary policy. If the actual release is better, it would be good for AUD and we would be looking to BUY AUD/USD, if the actual release is worse, it would be bad for AUD and we should be looking to SELL AUD/USD.
The safe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 30K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time, which is more than enough for us to predict market reaction… Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 4 hours… typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected at 5.6%. If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
With the recent RBA decision to keep rates unchanged, traders are now taking a more neutral stance at AUD. Should we get a surprise on this release either way, there should be no bias in either direction.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
Related posts:
- Australia Employment Changes 12/09/09
- Australia Employment Changes 11/11/09
- Australia Employment Changes m/m 10/07/09
- Australia Employment Changes m/m 09/09/09
- Trade Plan For Canada Employment Change 06/04/10
- How to trade Canadian Employment Change 04/09/10
- Forex Trading Strategy For Canada Employment Change 07/09/10
- Forex News Trading – CA Employment Change 12/03/10
- Canada Employment Change Forex Trading Strategy 09/10/10
- Forex News Trading Canada Employment Change 01/07/11
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Hi,
Can I have your email so I can send you a proposal?
Anthony
henry [at] henryliuforex [dot] com
I sure hope you post a video to this one quickly. Thanks.
\"If we do not get a conflict with the Employment Changes\" is this means just 0.1 deviation in opposite direction or maybe more?
Conflict means a better than expected employment but with a worse unemployment rate, or a worse than expected employment but with a better than expected unemployment rate.